- Arthur Hayes predicts a 20-30% Bitcoin price correction in March 2024 after anticipated US ETF launches drive prices above $60k. He plans to top-tick the market in late Feb.
- Hayes outlined reasons for the looming correction, including influx of fiat into ETFs, potential dollar liquidity rug pull, and negative theta around options expiry.
- Despite short-term volatility, Hayes remains bullish long-term, expecting the bull market to continue after March. He advises buckling up for volatility while staying optimistic.
Hayes predicts the correction will happen after the anticipated launch of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could drive prices above $60,000. He plans to avoid trading in March and will top-tick the market in late February by purchasing put options.
Reasons for the Correction
Hayes outlined several reasons for the looming correction:
Influx of Fiat into Bitcoin ETFs
According to Hayes, the launch of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could drive prices above $60,000, nearing the all-time high. This could lead to a 20-30% correction.
Potential Dollar Liquidity Rug Pull
Hayes said a more substantial 30-40% correction could occur due to a potential dollar liquidity rug pull.
Hayes wants to avoid the March 29th options expiry due to concerns about negative theta overwhelming other factors.
After the Correction
Despite the short-term correction, Hayes remains optimistic about crypto’s upward trajectory:
- The current bull market is still in its early stages. Investors shouldn’t get carried away.
- He expects the market to regain its footing after March.
- Upcoming Bitcoin halving will be bullish.
- Hayes plans to resume selling T-bills for crypto as market speculation intensifies.
While a vicious washout of crypto tourists may occur in March, Hayes believes the bull market will continue its upward climb over the long-term. He advises investors to buckle up and prepare for short-term volatility.