- Cardano surged more than 13% as the van Rossem upgrade rolled out alongside a broader crypto market recovery.
- Despite the rally, ADA remains in a longer-term bearish trend and must reclaim $0.19 to confirm a structural reversal.
- Technical indicators show improving momentum, but analysts warn the recent bounce may already be stretched.
Cardano enjoyed one of its strongest sessions in weeks after climbing 13.22% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume also surging by nearly 60%.
The rally arrived as the network successfully introduced the van Rossem upgrade, giving traders a fresh catalyst just as the broader crypto market turned positive. Bitcoin’s recovery above $62,000 also helped lift sentiment across major altcoins, adding further momentum to ADA’s move.
While the latest gains are certainly encouraging for holders, analysts say the bigger trend has yet to change.
Van Rossem Upgrade Boosts Sentiment
Unlike some of Cardano’s previous network milestones, the van Rossem upgrade isn’t considered a major hard fork.
Instead, it’s an intra-era upgrade focused on improving network performance and governance while introducing new built-in functions for the Plutus smart contract platform. These enhancements are designed to make development more efficient and strengthen Cardano’s long-term infrastructure.
Although the upgrade itself isn’t revolutionary, it arrives at a time when investors are paying closer attention to blockchain fundamentals again.
Combined with improving market conditions, it provided enough optimism to help fuel ADA’s latest breakout.
ADA Still Has a Bigger Hurdle to Clear
Despite the sharp rally, Cardano’s higher-timeframe chart continues to favor the bears.
Back in April and May, buyers fought aggressively to defend the $0.235 support level. Eventually, that support gave way, extending a downtrend that has largely remained intact since late 2025.
An even more significant level sits around $0.32.
That support was lost back in January 2026, shifting Cardano’s broader market structure firmly in favor of sellers. Since then, every recovery attempt has struggled to produce a lasting trend reversal.
The recent bounce has improved short-term sentiment, but the larger picture hasn’t flipped yet.
Using the June decline from $0.19 to $0.138, analysts mapped Fibonacci retracement levels that now serve as important resistance zones. ADA has already pushed above the 78.6% retracement level near $0.1789, an encouraging development, but it’s still not enough to fully change the trend.
A daily close above $0.19 remains the key level bulls need to reclaim before analysts begin talking about a genuine bullish reversal.
Momentum Improves, But Buying Pressure Remains Limited
Technical indicators present a mixed outlook.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) has climbed back above the 50 level, suggesting buying momentum has strengthened as fresh capital enters the market.
However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells a more cautious story.
Despite the recent surge in trading volume, CMF remains around +0.03 after spending much of the past several months below zero. That suggests buying pressure, while improving, still hasn’t become consistently strong enough to fully support a sustained uptrend.
In other words, buyers are returning… but they haven’t completely taken control.
Traders Watch for a Possible Pullback
Zooming into the four-hour chart reveals another potential concern.
The MFI has now climbed above the 80 level, placing Cardano in territory that many traders consider overbought in the short term.
That doesn’t necessarily mean prices will reverse immediately, but it does increase the possibility of a temporary pullback after such a rapid rally.
Some swing traders believe the current setup offers an attractive risk-to-reward opportunity for bearish positions, provided ADA fails to break above the critical $0.19 resistance.
If sellers regain momentum, analysts are watching $0.138 and $0.126 as the next major downside support levels.
For now, Cardano has regained some much-needed momentum, supported by both improving market sentiment and its latest network upgrade.
The next step, however, is far more important.
Unless ADA can reclaim and hold above $0.19, the broader trend will continue favoring the bears despite the recent surge.
