- Cardano is trading near $0.158 after a sharp weekly decline.
- Large ADA wallets have accumulated 370 million tokens since June 15.
- Derivatives data remains mixed, keeping short-term recovery hopes limited.
Cardano is still trading under pressure after a rough week that pulled ADA down by around 14%. As of Monday, the token was hovering near $0.158, with buyers trying to defend a fragile support area while bearish momentum continues to weigh on the chart. The price has not fully broken down yet, but it also has not shown enough strength to confirm a meaningful recovery.
Interestingly, on-chain data suggests some large holders are using the recent weakness as a buying opportunity. According to Santiment’s Supply Distribution data, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have accumulated around 370 million tokens since June 15. That is a notable move, especially during a period when sentiment around Cardano remains fairly weak.
ADA Whales Buy the Dip
The recent whale activity shows that not every major holder is stepping away from Cardano. In fact, the largest wallet group appears to be increasing exposure while the token trades near discounted levels. This kind of accumulation can sometimes help stabilize price action, because it signals that deeper-pocketed investors still see long-term value in the asset.
However, not all wallet groups are behaving the same way. During the same period, holders with 100,000 to 1 million ADA and those with 1 million to 10 million ADA sold around 10 million tokens combined. That split tells a slightly messy story. Some investors may be capitulating after the recent decline, while larger whales seem more willing to absorb the selling.
The result is a mixed but important signal. Large-wallet accumulation may provide some support beneath the market, but so far, it has not been enough to push ADA into a strong short-term rebound.
Derivatives Data Shows Mixed Sentiment
Cardano’s derivatives market is also sending conflicting signals. CoinGlass data shows ADA’s long-to-short ratio sitting at 0.40 on Monday, its lowest reading in more than a month. Since a ratio below 1 means short positions are outweighing longs, the number suggests traders are still leaning heavily bearish.
That is not exactly a bullish backdrop. When more traders are betting on downside than upside, recovery attempts can struggle, especially if spot demand remains weak. Still, the picture is not entirely negative.
ADA’s OI-weighted funding rate recently flipped positive, reaching 0.0050%. A positive funding rate means long traders are paying short traders, which usually points to improving bullish expectations among some leveraged participants. So, while the long-to-short ratio looks bearish, funding data hints that some traders are beginning to position for upside.
Cardano Price Remains Below Key Averages
From a technical standpoint, Cardano still has plenty of work to do. ADA remains well below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, which sit near $0.204, $0.236, and $0.311. As long as the token trades beneath these levels, the broader downtrend remains intact.
The RSI is hovering near 31, showing weak momentum but not quite extreme oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD line remains slightly positive, which suggests downside pressure may be stabilizing, though not enough to call it a clean reversal. Basically, the selling may be slowing, but buyers have not taken control yet.
Initial resistance sits near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $0.181. Above that, the $0.202 to $0.204 zone could become a major hurdle, especially because it aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the 50-day EMA.
Bulls Face a Dense Resistance Wall
If ADA manages to push higher, the next difficult zone sits between $0.230 and $0.240. This area includes the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $0.235, the broken downtrend level, horizontal resistance around $0.236, and the 100-day EMA. That is a crowded supply zone, and buyers would likely need stronger momentum to break through it.
Higher resistance appears near $0.245, followed by a wider barrier around $0.288 to $0.299. The 200-day EMA near $0.311 remains the larger level bulls would eventually need to reclaim to shift the broader structure more convincingly.
On the downside, the most important support remains near $0.148. If ADA loses that area, sellers could gain more control and push the token into another leg lower. For now, whale accumulation is encouraging, but derivatives data and technicals still suggest caution.
Cardano’s next move may depend on whether large holders keep absorbing supply while retail and leveraged traders remain hesitant. If buyers can defend $0.148 and reclaim $0.181, the recovery case improves. But until ADA clears heavier resistance above $0.20, bears still have the stronger hand.
