- Arthur Hayes predicts a 20-30% Bitcoin price correction in March 2024 after anticipated US ETF launches drive prices above $60k. He plans to top-tick the market in late Feb.
- Hayes outlined reasons for the looming correction, including influx of fiat into ETFs, potential dollar liquidity rug pull, and negative theta around options expiry.
- Despite short-term volatility, Hayes remains bullish long-term, expecting the bull market to continue after March. He advises buckling up for volatility while staying optimistic.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, believes the crypto bull market is still in its early stages but expects a 20-30% Bitcoin price correction in March 2024.
Hayes predicts the correction will happen after the anticipated launch of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could drive prices above $60,000. He plans to avoid trading in March and will top-tick the market in late February by purchasing put options.
Reasons for the Correction
Hayes outlined several reasons for the looming correction:
Influx of Fiat into Bitcoin ETFs
According to Hayes, the launch of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could drive prices above $60,000, nearing the all-time high. This could lead to a 20-30% correction.
Potential Dollar Liquidity Rug Pull
Hayes said a more substantial 30-40% correction could occur due to a potential dollar liquidity rug pull.
Negative Theta
Hayes wants to avoid the March 29th options expiry due to concerns about negative theta overwhelming other factors.
After the Correction
Despite the short-term correction, Hayes remains optimistic about crypto’s upward trajectory:
- The current bull market is still in its early stages. Investors shouldn’t get carried away.
- He expects the market to regain its footing after March.
- Upcoming Bitcoin halving will be bullish.
- Hayes plans to resume selling T-bills for crypto as market speculation intensifies.
Conclusion
While a vicious washout of crypto tourists may occur in March, Hayes believes the bull market will continue its upward climb over the long-term. He advises investors to buckle up and prepare for short-term volatility.
