- XRP has printed its first SuperTrend buy signal since mid-June after several weeks of heavy selling.
- On-chain data shows both short- and long-term holders are sitting at record losses, a condition that has historically preceded market recoveries.
- While technical indicators are improving, XRP still needs to break above key resistance near $1.24 to confirm a stronger bullish trend.
XRP may finally be showing signs of turning the corner.
After enduring weeks of relentless selling pressure, the cryptocurrency has generated its first SuperTrend buy signalsince mid-June, giving traders fresh hope that a recovery could be taking shape. The signal arrives after an extended correction and closely resembles a setup that previously led to a roughly 14% rally.
That’s caught plenty of attention.
Crypto analyst Ali Charts noted that the same indicator successfully identified XRP’s last two major declines, which saw the token fall around 19% and 16%, making the latest signal difficult for technical traders to ignore.
Of course, markets rarely repeat themselves exactly. No indicator guarantees future gains, especially when broader market conditions remain uncertain.
Still, the latest reading suggests one important thing: sellers may finally be losing their grip while buyers gradually regain control.
Holder Losses Reach Record Levels
On-chain data paints an equally interesting picture.
According to Santiment, XRP holders are currently experiencing the deepest unrealized losses ever recorded for the asset. The network’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to -45%, while the 365-day MVRV sits even lower at -47%.
In simple terms, both short-term and long-term investors are, on average, holding positions well below their purchase prices.
Historically, readings this extreme have often appeared near the later stages of prolonged selloffs rather than during periods of market optimism.
That’s because many weaker hands have already sold, locking in losses along the way. As selling pressure begins fading, fewer investors remain willing to exit at heavily discounted prices, sometimes creating conditions that support a relief rally.
It doesn’t guarantee one, but it certainly improves the overall risk-reward profile compared to periods when investors are sitting on large profits.
Network Activity Still Leaves Some Questions
Despite improving price action, not every indicator is flashing green.
Ripple’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio recently surged to 194.71, jumping nearly 471% in just 24 hours.
The NVT ratio compares a blockchain’s market value with the amount of value actually moving across the network. When the figure climbs sharply, it can suggest that the asset’s valuation is increasing faster than real transaction activity.
In other words, price may be recovering more quickly than network usage.
That doesn’t necessarily invalidate XRP’s recent breakout. During the early stages of many recoveries, price often rebounds before on-chain activity fully catches up.
Still, stronger transaction growth would provide healthier long-term support if XRP hopes to sustain higher valuations.
Buyers Regain Control, but Resistance Remains
From a technical standpoint, XRP’s chart has become noticeably more constructive.
The token recently reclaimed the $1.0385 support zone, an area where buyers have repeatedly stepped in to prevent further declines. At the same time, the daily MACD indicator has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above its signal line for the first time in weeks.
That crossover typically signals that bearish momentum is fading while buyers begin taking control.
Even so, one major obstacle still stands in the way.
The next significant resistance sits around $1.2352. A convincing breakout above that level could shift attention toward the next upside target near $1.3653, potentially strengthening the broader bullish outlook.
If XRP fails to clear resistance, however, traders will likely refocus on whether the $1.0385 support level can continue holding during any pullback.
For now, momentum is improving, technical indicators are becoming more supportive, and buyer confidence appears to be returning.
The final confirmation, though, will likely require XRP to push decisively above resistance and prove this recovery has staying power.
