- Solana remains below a major support level, keeping the broader technical outlook bearish.
- FTX, Alameda, and Forward Industries recently moved significant amounts of SOL, raising supply concerns.
- Despite ETF inflows, derivatives traders continue favoring short positions over longs, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Solana managed to post a small recovery over the past 24 hours, but the broader picture remains far from comfortable for bulls. The token climbed roughly 2.65% to trade near $65.40, while daily trading volume jumped 25% to almost $3 billion, a sign that market participants are becoming more active again.
Still, higher activity does not necessarily mean confidence has returned. In fact, much of the attention surrounding Solana lately has been focused on downside risks. Geopolitical uncertainty, a significant technical breakdown, and renewed concerns over token distributions have all combined to keep sentiment fragile. For many traders, the recent bounce looks more like temporary relief than the start of a sustainable recovery.
Solana’s Technical Structure Remains Weak
Despite the modest rebound, Solana’s chart continues to send warning signals. The asset recently fell below the major support level at $76.25, a zone that had acted as a floor for an extended period. Breaking beneath a level of that importance tends to shift market psychology, and so far, buyers have struggled to reclaim it.
That is why some analysts remain cautious.
Based on the current structure, Solana could potentially slide toward the $50 region if it remains trapped below former support. Such a move would represent another decline of roughly 22% from current levels, extending an already painful correction for holders.
Of course, markets rarely move in straight lines. If SOL manages to reclaim and hold above $76.25, the bearish scenario would begin losing credibility. Until that happens, however, the trend continues to favor sellers.
Adding to the concern is the Average Directional Index, or ADX, which recently climbed to 46. Typically, readings above 25 suggest a strong trend is underway. At 46, the indicator implies that the current market direction, unfortunately for bulls, still carries significant momentum behind it.
FTX and Alameda Activity Raises New Questions
Beyond the chart, on-chain developments have also captured trader attention.
According to blockchain tracking platform Lookonchain, wallets linked to the now-defunct FTX and Alameda Research recently unstaked 200,241 SOL worth approximately $13 million. While the move appears tied to ongoing creditor repayment efforts, it revived memories of previous distributions that introduced additional supply into the market.
Historically, large FTX-related unstaking events have often been followed by token movements and eventual sales. That doesn’t guarantee history repeats itself, but investors are understandably paying attention.
Another notable transaction came from Solana treasury company Forward Industries. The firm transferred 455,784 SOL, valued at nearly $32 million, to Coinbase Prime.
The timing is particularly interesting because Forward Industries accumulated approximately 6.83 million SOL throughout 2025 at an average purchase price of $232.08. With Solana currently trading far below that level, the position remains deeply underwater.
Whether the transfer signals preparation for selling or simply treasury management remains unclear. Nevertheless, the market tends to react cautiously whenever large token movements occur during periods of weakness.
ETF Demand Is Positive, But Traders Remain Skeptical
One bright spot for Solana has been the continued flow of capital into spot ETFs.
Data from SoSoValue showed that U.S. spot Solana ETFs attracted approximately $1.79 million in net inflows this week. While not a massive figure, it demonstrates that institutional interest has not disappeared entirely despite recent volatility.
Yet derivatives traders appear unconvinced.
According to CoinGlass, Solana’s Long/Short Ratio recently slipped to 0.99, indicating a slight preference for bearish positions. While the difference isn’t dramatic, it highlights growing caution among traders who expect additional downside risk.
The liquidation landscape tells a similar story. Around key price zones near $64.40 and $65.80, traders held approximately $27.49 million in long positions. Short positions, meanwhile, totaled roughly $49.26 million.
That imbalance suggests bearish traders currently hold stronger conviction than their bullish counterparts.
The Next Move Could Be Crucial
For now, Solana finds itself caught between competing forces. On one side, ETF inflows and increased trading activity suggest investors are still interested in the asset. On the other, technical weakness, large token movements, and cautious derivatives positioning continue to weigh heavily on sentiment.
The coming days may prove especially important. If buyers can build on the recent rebound and reclaim critical resistance levels, confidence could begin returning to the market. But if selling pressure intensifies again, the path toward lower targets may become increasingly difficult to ignore.
At the moment, the market seems undecided. Traders haven’t abandoned Solana, but they aren’t exactly embracing risk either. And in crypto, uncertainty can sometimes be just as powerful as fear.
