- Bitcoin traded near $84,000 on Tuesday, testing the $84,000 to $85,000 range that Glassnode says now contains the largest concentration of long-term holder supply.
- Coin-denominated open interest has fallen nearly 20% from August levels to its lowest point since March, suggesting much of the leverage from Bitcoin’s recent rally has been cleared.
- Analysts are watching $87,000 to $88,000 as immediate resistance, while spot demand and upcoming U.S. inflation data could help determine Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin is testing a key long-term holder supply zone around $84,000 after pulling back from last week’s rally toward $87,000.
Glassnode previously identified the broader $81,000 to $86,000 range as an important area of long-term holder supply.
That concentration has now shifted, with the largest long-term holder supply cluster sitting between $84,000 and $85,000.
The area could become important as Bitcoin attempts to hold its recent gains heading into the end of September.
Bitcoin Leverage Falls to Lowest Since March
Leverage across the Bitcoin derivatives market has declined significantly following the recent rally.
Coin-denominated open interest has dropped to its lowest level since March and is now nearly 20% below its August level, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains approximately 35% above its August low near $62,000.
Bitfinex analysts said much of the leverage accumulated during Bitcoin’s breakout toward $87,000 has now been cleared, while perpetual futures positioning has moved closer to neutral.
The decline in leverage could leave spot demand playing a larger role in determining Bitcoin’s next directional move.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance Near $87,000
Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn previously identified $87,000 to $88,000 as Bitcoin’s immediate resistance area.
The $84,000 to $85,000 range was highlighted as the first major zone to watch during a pullback.
JPMorgan has also estimated Bitcoin’s production cost at approximately $85,000. Sustained prices around or above that level could provide some relief for miners and potentially reduce pressure from forced selling.
Bitfinex analysts said their base case is for Bitcoin to consolidate between the $84,000 long-term holder cluster and the $87,722 yearly open through the Sept. 30 monthly and quarterly close.
They said spot demand is expected to play a key role in determining how that range ultimately resolves.
Macro Conditions Remain a Headwind
Bitcoin continues to face pressure from tighter financial conditions following the Federal Reserve’s rate increase earlier this month.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.17% on Sept. 25 from 5.01% on Sept. 16, while the inflation-adjusted 10-year yield increased to 2.83% from 2.68%.
Bitfinex analysts said higher real returns on lower-risk assets are currently a key constraint on Bitcoin.
Rising crude oil prices are another factor being watched, with Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda saying higher energy prices could make it harder for Bitcoin to regain upside momentum.
Markets are now turning their attention to the August core PCE inflation reading scheduled for Sept. 30 as Bitcoin trades around its key $84,000 to $85,000 support zone.
