- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $211.5 million in net inflows Tuesday, yet BTC remained near $64,000.
- Analysts say Bitcoin may be building a market bottom through prolonged consolidation rather than panic selling.
- The next major catalyst could come from macroeconomic data, particularly the upcoming U.S. jobs report and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday despite another strong day of institutional demand, as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $211.5 million in net inflows while Wall Street continued its record-setting rally.
Spot Ethereum ETFs also posted healthy demand with $53.8 million in inflows, but neither development was enough to trigger a meaningful breakout in cryptocurrency prices.
ETF Demand Isn’t Moving the Market
Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s muted response to strong ETF inflows suggests the market remains trapped in a period of consolidation rather than entering a new uptrend.
According to Wintermute, institutional buying continues to provide support, but Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim $65,000 convincingly before a broader recovery can gain momentum.
Meanwhile, traditional financial markets continued climbing, with the S&P 500 reaching another record high and the Nasdaq advancing on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.
On-Chain Data Suggests Selling Is Fading
Several blockchain analytics firms believe Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom.
Glassnode said its Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to one of the lowest levels of the current market cycle, historically a signal that selling pressure is beginning to fade.
Bitfinex analysts also highlighted a growing accumulation zone between $62,000 and $65,000, where roughly 155,000 BTC has changed hands. That concentration suggests buyers are steadily absorbing supply despite recent price weakness.
The firm added that approximately 54.6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remains in profit, placing the average holder close to breakeven—a condition that has historically coincided with market bottoms rather than major breakdowns.
Volatility Continues to Collapse
Options markets also point to unusually subdued expectations.
Glassnode reported that one-month implied upside volatility has fallen to its lowest level on record, while Wintermute estimated traders were pricing in only about a 1% move heading into Wednesday’s options expiry.
Historically, periods of extremely low volatility have often preceded significant price moves, although the eventual direction remains uncertain.
Macro Factors May Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move
Analysts increasingly believe Bitcoin’s short-term direction will depend more on macroeconomic developments than crypto-specific news.
Attention is now shifting toward the upcoming U.S. employment report, which could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
A softer labor market could reduce expectations for additional interest rate hikes, potentially improving sentiment toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic data could reinforce higher real yields and continue limiting upside for Bitcoin.
For now, Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow trading range, with investors watching whether institutional inflows and improving on-chain metrics can eventually translate into renewed price momentum.
