- Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, believes Bitcoin’s price floor is now above $30K based on the Bitcoin Cost Basis Density Map, an unbeaten metric tracking prices paid by long-term investors. Historically this has supported Bitcoin’s price when strong bands form after bear markets nearing an impending halving.
- Woo argues things are different this cycle with increased mainstream Bitcoin adoption, predicting the price floor will climb higher if a spot ETF is approved. However, some note Woo’s past floor predictions have been inaccurate at times.
- Fellow analyst Plan B also expects Bitcoin to remain between $32K-64K until the 2024 halving, though his past stock-to-flow model predictions have missed substantially. Determining Bitcoin’s exact price moves remains highly complex.
Willy Woo, a popular on-chain analyst, believes Bitcoin‘s price floor is now above $30K based on an unbeaten blockchain metric. This means further major declines are unlikely even amidst ongoing market volatility.
What is the Bitcoin Cost Basis Density Map?
Woo shared the Bitcoin Cost Basis Density Map, a contour chart tracking Bitcoin’s supply based on the price long-term investors paid for their coins. It shows a dense band reflecting strong agreed value around which much of Bitcoin’s supply moved at certain points in history.
How Has This Chart Operated as Support?
Woo claims the band has never been retested under $30K when three conditions are met:
- Strong bands of agreed prices emerge
- Bitcoin emerges from a bear market
- A halving approaches
He states these conditions exist now – Bitcoin has risen 130% since June 2022, and the next halving comes in April 2024. Historically, the bands have propped up Bitcoin’s price each of the 8 times they formed under similar conditions.
The Case for Why This Time is Different
Woo argues things are different this cycle given Bitcoin’s increased mainstream adoption. He sees the price floor climbing further if a spot ETF is approved. However, some analysts note Woo has made inaccurate floor predictions in the past.
Other Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Next Moves
Fellow analyst Plan B also expects Bitcoin to remain between $32K-64K until the next halving. But his past predictions using Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model have missed substantially. Determining Bitcoin’s exact price moves remains highly complex.
If Woo’s thesis proves accurate, Bitcoin’s downside from here is limited. But crypto markets remain volatile, so definitive predictions are difficult.