- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, driven by money creation and potential government efforts to control yields.
- Despite that long-term Bitcoin target, Hayes currently calls Ethereum his “number one pick” because he sees stronger short-term upside.
- Hayes believes ETH could rise 3x to 5x relatively quickly, arguing that it remains heavily discounted compared with other major crypto assets.
Arthur Hayes remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin over the long term, but right now he sees Ethereum as the more attractive opportunity for faster returns.
Speaking on the Trade Secrets podcast, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million by 2030 as central banks create more money and governments potentially rely on measures that suppress borrowing costs.
Hayes also suggested that Bitcoin’s fall toward $58,000 may have marked the bottom of the latest correction before the market began recovering.
Not everyone agrees with that outlook. 10x Research head Markus Thielen argued that a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2030 would require an enormous amount of fresh capital, calling the target mathematically unrealistic within that timeframe.
Ethereum Is Hayes’ Number One Pick
Despite his long-term confidence in Bitcoin, Hayes said Ethereum is currently his preferred crypto investment.
He believes ETH offers a better setup for new capital and could potentially deliver a 3x to 5x move faster than Bitcoin.
Part of that view comes from Ethereum’s relative weakness. Hayes noted that ETH remains heavily beaten down and is still below its 2021 peak, leaving more room for a sharp recovery if broader crypto momentum continues.
Ethereum also remains the foundation for a large part of decentralized finance, stablecoins and tokenized assets, giving Hayes confidence that renewed demand could translate into stronger price performance.
Hayes Turns More Cautious on Hyperliquid
Hayes has also reduced his focus on tokens such as Hyperliquid.
He said high expectations around HYPE have reduced the chances of another rapid, outsized move from current levels. While he still sees potential upside, Hayes believes Ethereum offers a more attractive risk-reward setup right now.
That represents a shift toward larger, more established crypto assets as the market recovers.
BitMEX Prepares to Shut Down
The comments come as BitMEX prepares to close its derivatives exchange on Sept. 23.
Users have been instructed to withdraw funds and close positions before the deadline.
Hayes said the shutdown feels positive because the exchange is closing on its own terms rather than following a hack or major security failure.
He also argued that running a crypto exchange has become increasingly difficult unless a platform has enormous scale, pointing to high infrastructure, technology and security costs.
For Hayes, the bigger market driver remains monetary policy rather than political headlines. He believes central bank actions will ultimately matter far more for Bitcoin and Ethereum than comments from individual political figures.
