- JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued vs. gold as volatility drops to record lows.
- Analysts model BTC’s fair price at $126,000, around $16K above current levels.
- Corporate treasuries now hold 6% of supply, with index inclusion fueling passive inflows.
Bitcoin may be far cheaper than it should be, at least according to JPMorgan. In a new research note, the Wall Street giant said BTC is undervalued compared to gold, particularly as its volatility falls to historic lows. Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has plunged from nearly 60% earlier this year to about 30%—the lowest level ever recorded.
With volatility converging toward gold, the bank highlighted that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now only twice as volatile as the precious metal, the lowest ratio on record. This convergence, they argue, makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios.
JPMorgan Models Suggest Bitcoin’s Fair Value Near $126K
On a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan’s analysts estimate that Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise 13% to align with gold’s $5 trillion private investment market. That implies a fair BTC price of about $126,000—roughly $16,000 higher than where it trades now.
The report suggests there is room for further upside, given that the digital asset is trading well below this benchmark. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou connected the trend to accelerating corporate treasury purchases, which now account for more than 6% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Corporate Adoption Fuels Passive Inflows
The analysts compared corporate treasury accumulation of BTC to how central bank quantitative easing once dampened bond volatility. They argued that equity index inclusions are driving passive inflows, adding further stability to Bitcoin markets.
Metaplanet (3350), for example, was recently upgraded into FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, gaining entry into global benchmarks. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) is raising up to $5 billion after its $679 million Bitcoin buy.
At the same time, new entrants such as Adam Back’s firm are looking to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury allocation, trailing only Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR).
