- XRP is showing multiple structural similarities to the 2022 downturn, including weak volume and stressed holder cohorts
- A break below the $1.80–$1.90 support zone could open the door to a much deeper pullback
- Bullish reversal patterns exist, but only confirm if key resistance levels are reclaimed
XRP has struggled over the past week, sliding nearly 10% since last Wednesday as macroeconomic stress continues to weigh on the broader crypto market. On its own, that kind of pullback isn’t unusual. What’s raising eyebrows is the structure of this move, because several patterns now look eerily similar to what played out in 2022.
Those similarities have sparked renewed concern that XRP could eventually test much lower levels, potentially even slipping below the psychological $1 mark if conditions worsen.
On-Chain Data Echoes 2022 Warning Signs
The first red flag comes from holder behavior. Glassnode data shows that investors in the 1-week to 1-month cohort are accumulating XRP at prices below the cost basis of those who bought 6 to 12 months ago. In other words, newer participants are getting better entries than longer-term holders who bought closer to the highs.
This imbalance creates slow-burning pressure. As price drifts lower or moves sideways, those higher-cost buyers may feel increasing stress. Glassnode notes that the same dynamic appeared in early 2022, shortly before a sharper sell-off took hold. Back then, the unwind was anything but gentle.
Falling Volume Signals Weak Conviction
Another uncomfortable parallel sits in volume behavior. XRP’s price has been declining while trading volume continues to taper off, closely resembling conditions seen during the 2021–2022 transition period.
When price falls without a meaningful pickup in volume, it usually signals hesitation, not aggressive dip-buying. Buyers aren’t stepping in with conviction, and that lack of participation often leaves price vulnerable. This exact setup appeared ahead of the February 2022 breakdown, making the current environment difficult to ignore.
Technical Momentum Adds to Downside Risk
Technical indicators add a third layer of caution. A comparison between the current MACD histogram structure and the one from the 2021–2022 cycle shows a striking resemblance. Momentum is rolling over in a similar fashion, suggesting downside pressure may not be finished yet.
If XRP loses the $1.80–$1.90 support zone, some analysts estimate a potential downside of up to 45%, which would push price below $1. That level carries both technical and psychological weight, and losing it could further damage sentiment.
Bullish Scenarios Still Exist, But Conditions Apply
Despite the caution, not everyone is bearish. Some analysts argue XRP is sitting at a make-or-break zone rather than on a straight path lower. One potential bright spot is the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
This setup only turns bullish if XRP reclaims the 100-day EMA above $2.24 and breaks through the $2.48–$2.52 neckline. If confirmed, the pattern points to a possible 33% upside move. Until then, it remains a possibility, not a promise.
Adding to that view, an on-chain analyst noted that XRP has completed a CME daily trend retest and filled a key 4-hour CME gap. Historically, these conditions have sometimes preceded short-term decoupling moves, where XRP rallies independently of broader market weakness.
A Critical Phase for XRP
Right now, XRP is walking a tight rope. On-chain data, volume behavior, and momentum indicators all echo parts of the 2022 downturn. At the same time, potential reversal structures are forming beneath the surface.
Which side wins will likely be decided in the weeks ahead. Until then, traders appear justified in staying cautious as XRP navigates one of the more sensitive phases of this cycle.
