- Polymarket claims to have identified a whale trader with a $28 million bet that former President Trump will win the 2024 Presidential election
- The trader is allegedly a French citizen with a background in finance and trading, using four different accounts on Polymarket
- Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation and says the election odds on their platform are consistent with other prediction markets
A recent investigation by the prediction market Polymarket claims to have uncovered the identity of an unnamed French trader who has placed over $28 million in bets that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election.
Polymarket Conducted Investigation After Odds Skewed Heavily Toward Trump
In October, the odds on Polymarket for Trump winning the 2024 election began shifting dramatically in the former president’s favor. This sparked speculation that the market was being manipulated. Polymarket launched an investigation to identify potential US-based users, which would violate their terms of service.
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Four Accounts Belonging to Same French Trader Identified
Through their investigation, Polymarket representatives stated they identified four separate accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie – that all belong to the same person. The company spokespeople said this unnamed French trader has an extensive background in finance and trading.
The trader claimed the large pro-Trump bets were based on personal beliefs about the election outcome rather than an attempt to manipulate the market. The positions were intentionally spread across smaller bets to avoid skewing the odds too heavily.
Polymarket Says No Evidence of Manipulation
Polymarket concluded there was no clear evidence of intentional market manipulation. They said the election odds on their platform align with those on competing prediction market sites.
Other platforms like Kalshi that are only available to US traders show similar odds, with Trump favored over Vice President Kamala Harris to win in 2024. This suggests the Polymarket odds reflect genuine market predictions.
Critics Remain Skeptical of Accuracy Compared to Polls
Some critics argue prediction markets like Polymarket are less accurate than traditional polls for forecasting election outcomes. They claim traders are making speculative bets without solid evidence.
Supporters believe the financial incentives make prediction markets a better gauge of true voter sentiment compared to polls. They argue these platforms serve a public good by aggregating information on potential election results.
