- Prediction markets now see over a 50% chance of a U.S. recession following Trump’s sweeping new tariffs.
- Economists warn the 10% blanket tariff could hurt consumers and trigger a global slowdown.
- Bitcoin and altcoins lost over $200B in value, though some analysts still predict a strong rebound.
Just one day after President Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcement, recession predictions have surged across top trading platforms—leaving investors bracing for what might come next.
Recession Bets Spike Across Prediction Markets
On Thursday, Polymarket pegged the odds of a U.S. recession by year-end at 50%, up sharply from 40% just a day before. Over on Kalshi, the number’s even higher—sitting at 56%. Crypto-native Myriad Markets, which only launched its recession market post-announcement, started off showing a 53.6% chance.
Trump’s 10% Blanket Tariff Sends Markets Tumbling
At the center of the storm is Trump’s new tariff policy: a 10% blanket levy on all trading partners, with some countries facing much higher effective rates. Markets didn’t take it lightly—on Thursday, the Nasdaq fell nearly 6%, and the S&P 500 dropped almost 5%.
Economists Warn: This Could Hit Consumers Hard
“This is going to be a hit to U.S. consumers,” said Ashish Shah of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The Economist went further, calling Trump’s tariff rollout “the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.”
Economic Indicators Are Already Flashing Red
Earlier this week, the March Purchasing Managers’ Index showed factory activity in decline and prices rising at their fastest pace since mid-2022. Consumer confidence? It just plunged to a four-year low.
Crypto Crash: Bitcoin and Altcoins Tank
The digital asset space wasn’t spared either—Bitcoin and major altcoins bled out over $200 billion in value. Yet, despite the turmoil, Bitwise still expects BTC to hit $200K by year-end. “Once the market settles from this ‘Liberation Day’ chaos,” said analyst Ryan Rasmussen, “we’ll finally start seeing things bounce back.”
