• Kamala Harris retook the lead over Donald Trump in betting odds after the debate
• The betting odds swung in Harris’ favor around halfway through the 90-minute debate
• Over $11 million was wagered during the debate at UK bookmaker Betfair Exchange
The odds have swung back in Vice President Kamala Harris’ favor in the 2024 presidential election betting market after her debate performance against former President Donald Trump.
Bettors Shift Toward Harris After Debate
Bettors have swung back toward Vice President Kamala Harris as she retook the lead at the betting window from former President Donald Trump as the dust settled from Tuesday’s debate.
Harris is now the favorite at UK and offshore betting houses, after starting the week behind Trump. More than $11 million was wagered during the debate at UK bookmaker Betfair Exchange, where Harris took the lead from Trump about halfway into the 90-minute debate.
This is the second time Harris’ odds have swung in the Democrats’ favor during the campaign. The odds previously moved toward Harris and running mate Tim Walz during their campaign rollout and honeymoon period.
Debate Performance Impacts Odds
The odds swing was not as dramatic as the drop for President Joe Biden after the June debate, where he moved from 2/1 before the poor outing to 4/1 after at Betfair. The market move is larger than after the first 2020 debate, where Biden extended his lead over Trump from -128 to +132 before the debate to -141 to +148 the day after.
How Accurate Are Betting Odds?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the nonprofit news organization The Conversation.
Harris held the narrowest lead over Trump of any recent Democratic nominee at the 75-day mark, sitting at -102 at UK oddsmaker Betfair Exchange. By contrast, Hillary Clinton‘s odds stood at -323 but she went on to lose the election in one of the two times the betting underdog won.
The other upset came in 1948 when Harry Truman (D) beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R).
Conclusion
After a strong debate performance, Kamala Harris has retaken the lead over Donald Trump in 2024 presidential election betting markets. The odds shift shows bettors see Harris as the new favorite, though anything can happen with over a year still to go until the election.
