- Galaxy Research has slashed its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 10%.
- A tight Senate calendar, unresolved ethics rules, and disputes over stablecoin rewards remain major obstacles.
- The Senate returns September 14, leaving lawmakers only a narrow window to advance one of America’s biggest crypto bills.
Galaxy Research has dramatically lowered its expectations for the CLARITY Act, estimating there is now just a 10% chance that the landmark cryptocurrency legislation becomes law before the end of 2026.
The downgrade represents a major shift in sentiment. Galaxy had previously placed the legislation’s chances as high as 75% in May before gradually reducing its outlook as political and procedural obstacles accumulated.
Senate Calendar Becomes a Major Problem
Timing is now one of the biggest threats facing the CLARITY Act.
The Senate isn’t scheduled to return until September 14, leaving lawmakers only around two to three weeks to move the legislation forward. Galaxy’s Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn warned that unless senators begin the process almost immediately, the bill would effectively need to dominate the remaining working session to have a realistic chance of passing.
That becomes difficult with Congress also facing other legislative priorities heading toward the election season.
Crypto Bill Still Faces Political Disputes
Several major disagreements also remain unresolved.
Lawmakers continue negotiating ethics restrictions surrounding government officials’ involvement with crypto, while banks are pushing for changes to provisions covering stablecoin rewards. Developer protections have emerged as another area requiring further negotiations.
The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and provide clearer regulatory responsibilities across U.S. agencies. It has already made progress in Congress, but Galaxy believes politics and the shrinking calendar have dramatically reduced its chances this year.
September Could Decide the CLARITY Act’s Fate
The Senate’s return will now become the critical moment for the legislation.
If lawmakers can quickly resolve outstanding disagreements and move toward a vote, the bill still has a path forward. But Galaxy’s 10% estimate suggests that path has become extremely narrow.
For the crypto industry, failure to pass the CLARITY Act would leave federal agencies playing a larger role in determining near-term digital asset rules. That could provide some regulatory clarity, but agency rules generally lack the permanence of legislation passed by Congress.
