- Cardano’s ADA has gained 13.5% in March, recovering from a steep drop but still down 15% for Q1.
- Social sentiment around ADA has hit a 4-month high, though on-chain activity has declined by 70% since late 2024.
- A breakout above $0.78 could push ADA up 20%, but failure to do so may keep it stuck between $0.70 and $0.78.
Cardano’s ADA has been making a steady recovery, posting a 13.5% gain in March despite a brutal 32% dip in February. The altcoin still sits 15% lower for Q1, but recent technical signals suggest bullish momentum could continue.
Social Sentiment Hits a 4-Month High
While ADA’s price has bounced between $0.78 and $0.70 for the past 10 days, social sentiment around the project has surged to a new yearly peak.
According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, Cardano’s bullish sentiment has hit its highest level in four months, spurred by SEC comments recognizing ADA’s use case in smart contracts for government services.
Historically, rising social sentiment often correlates with increased trading activity—but this time, on-chain data tells a different story.
Transaction volumes have plummeted compared to late 2024. In November and December, ADA saw an average of over 100,000 daily transactions. Now, that figure has collapsed 70%, with only 26,437 transactions recorded on March 18.
Can ADA Rally 20% Before the End of March?
Despite weak on-chain activity, ADA has remained above the key 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, signaling long-term bullish potential.
The 1-day chart shows ADA holding above an ascending trendline, oscillating within a parallel channel. Immediate resistance sits at $0.78, a level reinforced by the 200-day exponential moving average (200-EMA). A daily close above this level could trigger a breakout toward $0.84–$0.88, representing a 20% gain from current prices.
However, Cardano is no stranger to sideways action. If it fails to break above $0.78, ADA may remain stuck in a $0.70–$0.78 range, delaying any major rally. A confirmed breakout, though, could flip the script and send ADA toward higher resistance levels.
