- Analysts say it’s too early to determine Bitcoin’s trend for October as investors react to macroeconomic events.
- Bitcoin trading volume has dropped by 16% since October began, reflecting investor caution.
- Potential Fed rate cuts, US election, and Middle East tensions may keep investors on the sidelines.
Bitcoin’s price performance at the start of October may not be meeting expectations, but analysts suggest it’s too soon to predict the rest of the month’s outcome. According to Bitget’s chief crypto analyst Ryan Lee, many investors are focused on larger economic events, which could influence market direction.
Market Sentiment and Trading Volume
Bitcoin’s price has fallen 5.76% since September 27, reflecting a cautious mood among investors. Trading volume has also declined, with spot Bitcoin volume dropping 16% since October 1, as noted by Lee in a report shared with Cointelegraph. He explained that this decrease is understandable given the current macroeconomic uncertainties.
CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler echoed similar thoughts, stating that the slow start to October, often referred to as “Uptober” for its historically positive performance, doesn’t necessarily determine how the rest of the month will turn out. Lee further added that investors are currently opting for a more risk-off strategy, preferring to stay on the sidelines amid market volatility.
Factors Affecting Investor Decisions
Several macroeconomic factors may be contributing to investor hesitation. These include the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following September’s 50 basis point reduction, the upcoming US presidential election, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. These events have led many investors to hold back from making significant moves, opting to preserve their capital.
Despite the subdued trading activity, Lee expressed optimism about the potential for a short-term rally, suggesting that Bitcoin could see an 18% price surge if conditions become clearer. He noted that Bitcoin has maintained support above the $60,000 level and could fluctuate within the $72,000 range, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and a market rebound, which aligns with Bitcoin’s historically positive fourth quarters.
Furthermore, despite the recent drop in trading volume, institutional investors continue to buy digital assets at a rate equal to or higher than the amount mined daily. Recent data from Farside indicated that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have attracted over 18,500 BTC, valued at more than $1.1 billion, in the past 10 months, demonstrating ongoing interest from institutional players.
