- Bitcoin is on track to experience its longest period of sideways trading during a halving year if it doesn’t show significant upward movement within the next 14 days
- This year witnessed a major milestone as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in its 15-year history, essentially accelerating the post-halving bull run by 260 days
- Since Bitcoin is already overdue to break out of the re-accumulation range between the $71,000 and $60,000 price zones, it is predicted that the sideways period could continue for another two months, making it the longest of all time during a halving year
Bitcoin is on track to experience its longest period of sideways trading during a halving year if it doesn’t show significant upward movement within the next 14 days. This article explores the historical data behind Bitcoin’s flat markets after halvings and the predictions for when this stagnation might end.
Bitcoin’s Sideways Trading This Year
According to a dashboard shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the longest time BTC took to rise was 298 days. This year also witnessed a major milestone as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in its 15-year history.
However, the multiple corrections registered since the halving have lowered the acceleration rate to 60 days, according to analyst RektCapital. Additionally, the historical re-accumulation period seen after each Bitcoin halving is already the longest since 2016. Rekt Capital predicted the sideways period could continue for another two months, which would make it the longest of all time during a halving year.
Historical Comparison
Bitcoin achieved its highest return index during a halving year in 2020 when it hit 405 points, while 2016 marked the worst with the index only reaching 226 points. Despite being the second-best performing year, 2012 registered the strongest start after 298 days, achieving 206 points in the return index.
Market Predictions
Based on historical data, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs roughly 240 days after a halving event over the past four cycles. However, this trend was broken this year. While it took 161 days after the halving for Bitcoin to begin its all-time high climb in 2016, it took 164 days in 2020.
If Bitcoin doesn’t show significant upward movement in the next 14 days, it will have traded sideways for the longest period ever during a halving year. This extended re-accumulation range could allow the acceleration rate to reduce to zero before the next bull run.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently overdue to break out from its sideways trading range between $71,000 and $60,000. The coming weeks will determine whether BTC is headed for its longest flat market ever or the start of a new parabolic bull run. Historical data shows there is still room for substantial growth in this halving cycle if the stagnation ends soon.
