- Bitcoin failed to break $88K and is forming lower highs amid ongoing short-term holder sell pressure.
- Liquidity is drying up, with on-chain volumes down 47% and active addresses falling by 18%.
- New demand remains weak, while long-term holders still control nearly 40% of Bitcoin’s invested value.
Bitcoin had a solid pop earlier in the week—briefly touching $88,752 on March 24—but it’s been downhill since then, at least on the short-term charts. We’re talking lower highs, lower lows, and more sideways chop than bulls were probably hoping for.
As we near the end of Q1, that big $90K retest? Yeah, it’s looking less and less likely.
What’s Holding BTC Back? It’s a Bit of a Mess
There’s a lot going on under the hood, but one of the biggest culprits? Short-term holders—basically anyone who picked up BTC in the last ~155 days. Glassnode’s recent report says this group has taken a pretty heavy hit, especially after that 30% pullback from all-time highs.
“Volume of Short-Term Holder supply held in loss is now at 3.4 million BTC,” Glassnode analysts wrote. “That’s the largest amount since July 2018.”
And when people are that underwater, well… they start selling. Fast. The data shows it too—Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score (a way of tracking if investors are stacking or dumping) has stayed under 0.1. For context, anything below 0.5 = selling mode. Below 0.1 = panic button.
Liquidity’s Drying Up, Too
Another issue? Liquidity—or lack of it. On-chain transfer volume has dropped to $5.2 billion per day, which is 47% lower than during the last peak rally. Fewer coins moving around means fewer people buying, selling, or even caring, tbh.
And it’s not just volume. Active addresses have fallen, too—from about 950k in Nov. 2024 to just 780k now. That’s an 18% dip in unique users transacting. Not great.
Meanwhile, open interest in BTC futures has taken a hit—falling from $71.85B to $54.65B, and funding rates for perpetual futures have cooled off, signaling reduced speculation.
So yeah… less money, fewer players, and almost no juice behind the buying side right now.
Demand’s Not Dead, Just… Kinda Missing
Here’s the other problem: no new demand. The current bull cycle hasn’t pulled in many fresh buyers. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap shows most supply is sitting up near $100K–$108K, but there’s little activity happening at lower levels—where you’d expect buyers to step in.
It doesn’t help that macro uncertainty is still scaring people off. Capital outflows are growing, and newer buyers (1-week to 1-month holders) are now deeper in the red than slightly older ones (1-3 month holders). That crossover usually spells uh-oh for market momentum.
But—there’s a silver lining. Maybe.
“Long-Term Holders still own about 40% of the invested value,” Glassnode noted. That means a lot of BTC is locked up tight, not moving, which could eventually squeeze supply if demand picks up again.
So sure, things feel stuck for now. But as always with Bitcoin—it only takes one spark to flip the whole mood.
