- VanEck says eight of its 12 Bitcoin capitulation indicators are currently flashing, suggesting the lengthy correction may be approaching its end.
- Bitcoin is roughly 11 months removed from its October 2025 peak, close to the timeframe when previous bear markets began transitioning toward accumulation.
- Institutional demand is showing signs of improvement, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recording their strongest daily inflows since May.
Bitcoin may be approaching a major turning point after nearly 11 months of correction, according to research from asset manager VanEck.
Researchers Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel found that eight of the 12 indicators included in VanEck’s “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are currently within capitulation territory. All 12 indicators have entered that zone at some point during the past three months, suggesting much of the market’s selling pressure may already have played out.
Bitcoin Could Be Entering Accumulation
Bitcoin currently trades around $64,700 after spending much of the summer between roughly $58,000 and $66,500. Despite stabilizing, BTC remains about 48% below its October 2025 record high near $126,300.
VanEck’s historical analysis offers some encouragement. Bitcoin’s previous three major bear-market phases took an average of 12.7 months to move from their peaks to maximum drawdowns.
The current correction is approaching its 11th month, potentially putting September through November in focus as a period when Bitcoin could transition toward accumulation if historical patterns broadly repeat.
ETF Demand Shows Signs of Returning
Institutional demand is also beginning to improve. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single-day performance since May 5.
VanEck believes institutional ownership and spot ETFs could also make Bitcoin’s eventual bottom shallower than in previous cycles. The current downturn has notably avoided catastrophic failures comparable to FTX, Celsius and Terra Luna, which intensified earlier crypto bear markets.
Still, VanEck warned that capitulation indicators should not automatically be treated as immediate buy signals. Historically, periods when eight to 12 indicators were flashing did not necessarily produce stronger-than-average returns over the following 90 or 180 days.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Selling
One potential concern is continued movement from long-term holders. Bitcoin held for more than one year declined by approximately 356,000 BTC over the past month to 11.84 million BTC.
That pushed long-term holders below 60% of circulating supply for the first time in months.
The bigger picture, however, is that Bitcoin may be moving from capitulation toward consolidation and accumulation. If VanEck’s historical framework holds, the next several months could prove important in determining whether the current range becomes Bitcoin’s longer-term bottom.
