- Bitcoin prices are up 120% in 2022 but on-chain data shows the bull run still has room to grow before hitting a frenzy. The number of smaller wallets is increasing but short-term speculators have not yet returned en masse.
- Profitability metrics show the only unprofitable Bitcoin cohort is those who bought during the 2021 bull market highs. Their break-even point nears if Bitcoin passes $39,000. Overall, only 1.16% of unspent outputs are currently at a loss.
- On-chain data indicates Bitcoin is approaching an important profitability milestone where newer investors will break even. However, bull market investor behavior has yet to hit a frenzy, suggesting there is still room for further growth.
Bitcoin has seen impressive gains this year, but data shows the bull run still has room to grow before hitting a frenzy. On-chain metrics reveal that Bitcoin is approaching an important profitability milestone, while younger coins are just starting to move. The market remains early.
Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin remains near 18-month highs, well beyond previous resistance levels. The leading cryptocurrency is up 120% in 2022 so far. However, on-chain data shows Bitcoin bull market FOMO has yet to appear. The number of smaller wallets is increasing, but there has not been a major return of short-term speculators.
Bitcoin Investor Behavior
Bitcoin’s realized cap and “RHODL” waves show coins frequently moving during bull markets are only starting to increase now as coins are transferred on-chain. This indicates investors are still hesitant to sell or move their holdings. The data suggests investors who bought the 2021 highs remain underwater.
Profitability Metrics
Examining profitability by Bitcoin age bands provides insight into investor behavior. Notably, the only unprofitable cohort is those holding 18 months to 3 years, aligning with the 2021 bull market entries. Their break-even point approaches if Bitcoin rallies past $39,000. Overall, the number of unspent outputs currently at a loss is just 1.16%.
Conclusion
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is approaching an important profitability point where newer investors break even. However, bull market investor behavior has yet to hit a frenzy. The metrics suggest there is still room for the bull market to grow.
