- Bitcoin’s up 11% in the past month, hitting a new high of $122,884 with minimal retail hype.
- Exchange and OTC supply is at record lows, while ETFs and treasuries are quietly accumulating.
- Macro risks (like tariffs or delayed rate cuts) could cause dips, but a full downtrend looks unlikely, according to 21Shares.
Bitcoin doesn’t look like it’s heading into a downtrend anytime soon. Not if you ask 21Shares’ crypto strategist Matt Mena, who says the data just doesn’t support that idea right now. According to him, the mix of growing demand and disappearing supply is tilting the odds heavily in the bulls’ favor.
“There’s just way more good than bad going on right now,” Mena told Cointelegraph. “With demand outpacing supply by this much, it’s hard to picture a prolonged drop.”
BTC Supply Dries Up—Demand Keeps Climbing
Mena pointed out that Bitcoin supply on both exchanges and OTC desks is still sitting at all-time lows. At the same time, demand? Still climbing. That’s a recipe for price strength—not weakness.
“Supply fundamentals are even more imbalanced than they were earlier in the year,” he noted.
And it’s not just retail jumping in either. Bitfinex said fresh buyers entering the market are price-agnostic—they’re just stacking Bitcoin, fast. Faster, actually, than miners can even produce it.
Still, not everyone is piling in. Bitwise’s head of research, André Dragosch, mentioned that retail interest seems… kinda quiet. He flagged that Google searches for “Bitcoin” haven’t really moved much—even as the price pushed into new all-time highs.
Bitcoin Hits $122K—With Hardly Any Hype?
On Monday, Bitcoin briefly touched $122,884—smashing through its previous record of $111,970 from just days earlier on July 9. Even now, it’s trading around $117,800 according to CoinMarketCap.
And yet, somehow, the vibe still feels low-key. There’s no mainstream mania, no wave of retail FOMO. Which might actually be a good thing—less hype now might mean more fuel for later.
Over the last month, BTC is up over 11%, and a lot of that momentum seems to be driven by institutions. Mena said that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have already soaked up more BTC than what will be mined all year. That doesn’t even count the quiet accumulation happening in corporate treasuries.
“Those guys are still buying, just not making a lot of noise about it,” he said.
A Few Risks Still Linger
Of course, not everything’s bulletproof. Mena warned that a short-term pullback is possible—especially if certain macro risks come into play. If Trump’s proposed tariffs turn out harsher than expected, or if Jerome Powell hints that rate cuts are further off, markets might wobble—and Bitcoin could take a hit too.
But even with those risks, Mena thinks an extended drawdown is unlikely. “We expect upside to pick back up after summer,” he said.
Summer Lull? Not This Time
And here’s the kicker—Bitcoin’s breaking records during the slowest part of the year. “Summer usually means low volume, sideways action, and traders on vacation,” Mena added. “But this time, it’s different. We’re seeing strength where we usually see nothing.”
Historically, Q3 has been Bitcoin’s weakest quarter—averaging just a 6.3% return since 2013. But this cycle’s not following the old rules. And that alone might be the biggest signal yet.
