- Bitcoin is holding around $78,000 after gaining roughly 25% in August, its best August since 2017 and strongest overall month since November 2024.
- Higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and growing expectations for a September Fed rate hike are creating headwinds for BTC.
- Traders are watching $75,000 as key support and roughly $82,000 as resistance ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report and the September Fed meeting.
Bitcoin is holding around $78,000 despite a tougher macroeconomic backdrop, retaining most of its gains following a strong August rally.
BTC gained roughly 25% last month, marking its best August performance since 2017 and strongest month overall since November 2024, according to LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger.
Since then, renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed Brent crude above $90, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments have increased expectations that interest rates could rise in September.
Kruger said Bitcoin’s resilience is notable given higher bond yields, a stronger dollar and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
However, the combination of rising oil prices and a more hawkish Fed could limit Bitcoin’s immediate upside.
Bitcoin Absorbs Shift in Rate Expectations
Bitcoin briefly climbed above $81,000 last week before falling below $78,000 following Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Despite the pullback, Wintermute OTC Trader Jasper De Maere said Bitcoin finished the week almost unchanged after gaining 23% the previous week.
BTC managed to absorb rising rate expectations, weakness in semiconductor stocks and month-end trading without giving back its broader breakout.
Institutional demand has also provided support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $924 million in inflows across nine consecutive positive sessions before seeing a $202 million outflow on Friday.
De Maere said under-allocated investors are continuing to support Bitcoin around current levels.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance Around $82,000
Bitcoin could remain volatile until the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on interest rates.
Wintermute sees $75,000 and $72,000 as important support levels, while approximately $82,000 represents the main resistance area.
Kruger similarly identified the $80,000 to $82,820 range as the key barrier Bitcoin needs to overcome.
A sustained breakout above that region could potentially open the door for another move toward and eventually above $100,000, according to Kruger.
For now, however, consolidation remains the more likely scenario as traders wait for additional macroeconomic data.
U.S. Jobs Report Becomes the Next Test
Attention is now turning toward Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could influence expectations ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
Economists expect the U.S. economy to add approximately 55,000 jobs in August while the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.
Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said another weaker-than-expected employment report could raise questions about whether the Fed would be willing to increase rates while the labor market is deteriorating.
That makes the jobs report particularly important for Bitcoin. A meaningful shift in rate expectations could determine whether BTC breaks through $82,000 or retests support around $75,000 ahead of the Fed’s decision.
