- Bitcoin is approaching a “death cross,” but every death cross in this cycle since 2023 has marked a major local bottom instead of a deeper breakdown.
- The current 25% drawdown is milder and shorter than April’s slump, though history suggests there could still be room for more downside.
- BTC dropped about 10% after the U.S. government reopened, echoing a similar pattern from 2019, leaving traders watching to see if the same recovery rhythm repeats.
Bitcoin is drifting into that uneasy zone again, the one traders love to fear—where the 50-day moving average starts sliding under the 200-day, forming the so-called death cross. Funny thing is, despite its gloomy name, every single death cross in this cycle since 2023 has lined up almost perfectly with a major local bottom. Now, with BTC down roughly 25% from its October peak near $126K, the pattern seems to be circling back… though nothing ever plays out exactly the same way, does it?
A Bearish Signal That Keeps Acting Bullish
Glassnode’s latest data shows the short-term average hovering around $110,669 and slowly sinking toward the long-term trend at $110,459. Once that crossover happens, the algorithmic crowd will start yelling “bearish!” again. But here’s the twist: in all three prior instances—September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025—Bitcoin had already bottomed right before the death cross formed. Each time, sentiment was terrible, people were panicking over macro stuff, and yet the chart quietly flipped from red to recovery. Now BTC has dipped to $94,000, and the market is starting to wonder if the same script is playing out with just a few edits.
This Drawdown Feels Lighter… Probably?
The current selloff has lasted about 41 days, which sounds rough, but it’s still nowhere near the brutal April correction. Back then, during the tariff-policy mess under President Trump, Bitcoin dropped around 30% from its January highs and kept bleeding for roughly 79 days before finally finding a floor. By contrast, this drawdown sits closer to 25%, and it’s not even half as long, which leaves a little room—maybe too much room—for more downside if history decides to rhyme instead of repeat.
Old Government Patterns, New Market Nerves
What’s weirdly similar this time is the political backdrop. The U.S. government reopened on Nov. 12, and Bitcoin instantly fell about 10%. That mirrors the 2019 reopening, when BTC slid more than 9% within five days before stabilizing in early February. It took nearly two weeks back then for Bitcoin to recover, stumbling around before it finally caught some strength. With today’s market already showing that 10% drop right after the reopening, traders are watching closely to see if the same slow-motion rebound pattern comes back—or if this cycle decides to throw something different at us.
If past death crosses tell us anything, Bitcoin likes to bottom when everyone’s looking the other way. But, well… markets rarely deliver the same punch twice. Let’s see if this one does.
