- Bernstein says the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act shifts the next phase of U.S. crypto regulation toward SEC and CFTC rulemaking.
- Analysts expect the agencies to move “aggressive and swift” on areas including token classification, DeFi, self-custody, tokenized equities and perpetual futures.
- The failed bill also leaves stablecoin reward rules unchanged for now, allowing platforms such as Coinbase to continue offering rewards on idle stablecoin balances.
The Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act could shift the next phase of U.S. crypto regulation away from Congress and toward federal agencies, according to Bernstein analysts.
The procedural vote failed 49-50 on Tuesday, leaving supporters 11 votes short of the 60 required to advance the legislation.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said they now expect the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to focus on “specific rule-making.”
The analysts expect that process to be “aggressive and swift” as regulators move forward after months were spent negotiating the legislation.
SEC and CFTC Could Move on Crypto Rules
Bernstein expects the two agencies to address several major areas that would have been affected by broader market structure legislation.
Those include how native crypto tokens are classified, protections surrounding DeFi and self-custody infrastructure, and rules for tokenized equities.
The analysts also see potential for faster approvals involving real-world-asset perpetual futures.
Coordination between the SEC and CFTC could also address single-stock perpetuals, while Bernstein expects rules surrounding the classification of federal sports event contracts as swaps to be amended.
The agency-led approach could therefore become the main path for crypto regulatory changes while comprehensive legislation remains stalled in Congress.
Stablecoin Rewards Remain Unchanged
The failed CLARITY Act also leaves the current framework surrounding stablecoin rewards unchanged.
According to Bernstein, the compromise legislation would have prohibited rewards on idle stablecoin balances while allowing rewards connected to customer activity.
Without the legislation, platforms such as Coinbase can continue offering rewards on idle stablecoin balances under the existing framework.
“Stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS,” Bernstein analysts wrote.
However, the issue could face additional regulatory scrutiny. StoneX noted that proposed OCC and FDIC rules could presume a stablecoin issuer violates the GENIUS Act’s issuer yield restriction if it pays an affiliate that then provides rewards to stablecoin holders.
StoneX Sees CLARITY Act Stalled for This Congress
StoneX Financial analysts led by Mark Palmer said they view the CLARITY Act as effectively dead for the current Congress, pointing to only 14 working days remaining in the Senate before campaign season.
They also cited Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who said the next realistic opportunity for the legislation may not arrive until 2030.
Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 had already fallen from 82% in February to 16% before the Senate vote.
Meanwhile, the stablecoin rewards debate could eventually move into the courts after the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027, according to StoneX.
