- Ark Invest updated its Bitcoin forecast, predicting a potential $2.4 million per BTC by 2030, factoring in active supply and network liveliness, which suggests around 40% of Bitcoin is effectively vaulted.
- The firm’s new model gives a bear case of $500K and highlights key drivers like institutional adoption, digital gold narrative, corporate treasuries, and emerging market demand.
- Bitcoin recently crossed $95K again, still below its all-time high of $109K, while other big names like Michael Saylor and Brian Armstrong also see BTC reaching multi-million-dollar levels in the future.
Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest crew are doubling down — and leveling up — on their Bitcoin predictions.
In their latest report dropped Thursday, Ark outlined a crazy bullish scenario where Bitcoin could hit $2.4 million per coin by 2030.
(Yeah, you read that right… two. point. four. million.)
What’s Different This Time?
Before, Ark based their big BTC dreams mostly on TAM (total addressable market) assumptions and penetration rates — stuff like Bitcoin replacing gold, new investors jumping in, institutions stacking sats, etc.
Now?
They’ve added another layer: factoring in Bitcoin’s active supply.
Here’s the thing:
- Bitcoin’s network liveliness has been hovering around 60% since 2018.
- Meaning… roughly 40% of all Bitcoin is considered “vaulted” — either lost forever, untouched, or locked up by HODLers.
By adjusting their models to only include the active BTC in circulation (instead of the total 21M max supply), Ark says the real price potential jumps by about 40% compared to their older forecasts.
So, What Are the New Numbers?
- Bear case: around $500,000 per Bitcoin
- Bull case: an insane $2.4 million per Bitcoin
They’re basically saying even if things go sideways, Bitcoin still has serious upside. And if everything lines up perfectly?
It could melt faces.
Why Ark Thinks Bitcoin Will Fly
The report breaks it down into a few big drivers:
- Bitcoin maturing as digital gold
- Institutional adoption through spot ETFs
- Emerging markets adopting BTC as a safe haven
- Corporate treasuries diversifying into Bitcoin, beyond just holding cash
Mix all that together, factor in vaulted coins, and… well, the sky’s the limit.
Not Just Ark Dreaming Big
Cathie Wood’s team isn’t the only group throwing out million-dollar Bitcoin calls.
- Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy boss and BTC mega-bull) said last fall he thinks Bitcoin could hit $13 million(yes, million) over the next 21 years.
- Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO, said earlier this year he expects Bitcoin to eventually land somewhere in the “multiple millions” range.
So yeah, it’s not just one crazy voice yelling into the void.
Meanwhile, Back in Reality…
Bitcoin broke $95,000 earlier Friday, the first time it’s cracked that level in two months.
Still, it’s chilling a bit lower than its January all-time high of nearly $109,000.
If Ark’s forecast even gets halfway close?
You might want to think twice about selling your bags too soon.
