- Veteran technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier believes Ethereum could be building a short-term bottom.
- A sustained move above $1,800 may open the door to a rally toward the 200-day moving average near $2,200.
- Rising exchange inflows, whale selling, and weaker ETF demand could still threaten the bullish setup.
Ethereum may finally be showing signs of stabilizing after weeks of volatile price action, but analysts say one key level could determine whether the recent bounce develops into something much bigger.
According to Stephen Suttmeier, the former Head of Technical Strategy at Bank of America, ETH appears to be building what he describes as a “tactical bottom.” The idea isn’t confirmed yet—but the chart is beginning to lean in that direction.
Ethereum Needs to Hold Above $1,700
In his latest technical outlook, Suttmeier argued that Ethereum needs to continue holding the $1,690-$1,700 region to support the theory that a meaningful bottom has formed above the lows seen in June.
The next step is just as important.
A successful reclaim of the $1,800 level would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are beginning to regain control. At the time of writing, however, Ethereum remains just below that area after briefly stalling beneath its 50-day moving average.
For technical traders, that moving average carries significant weight.
Suttmeier believes that if ETH can decisively flip the 50-day moving average into support, the next major upside target becomes the 200-day moving average, currently sitting near $2,200.
That would represent roughly a 25% upside move from current levels, assuming Ethereum can also clear resistance around the $2,100 area.
His outlook also received support from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who shared the analysis, suggesting he agrees with the broader technical thesis.
The Charts Are Starting to Improve
Ethereum’s recent price action has quietly become more constructive.
After slipping below $1,600 twice in recent weeks, ETH appears to have formed a classic double-bottom pattern—a technical formation many traders associate with potential trend reversals.
While chart patterns never guarantee future price movements, the setup suggests selling pressure may be fading as buyers slowly step back into the market.
If no major bearish catalyst emerges in the near term, the technical picture could continue improving.
Still, charts only tell part of the story.
Whale Selling Continues to Pressure Ethereum
On-chain data remains noticeably less optimistic.
According to CryptoQuant, exchange selling pressure has increased by roughly 6% over the past several days as Ethereum attempted to recover. More than 220,000 ETH reportedly moved onto exchanges during the recent rally, adding fresh supply just as buyers tried pushing prices higher.
Large investors also appear to be reducing exposure.
Whale wallets have continued selling into the rebound, helping explain why Ethereum struggled to break cleanly above the $1,800 resistance zone. So far, there are few signs that this selling activity has meaningfully slowed.
Even more concerning, exchange inflows have generally been trending higher since March.
If that pattern continues, it could weaken the argument that Ethereum has already established a lasting bottom.
ETF Demand Has Also Started Cooling
Institutional sentiment has softened as well.
Earlier this month, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs enjoyed five consecutive trading sessions of positive inflows, helping support ETH’s recovery.
That streak has now ended.
The funds recorded approximately $52 million in net outflows on Thursday, signaling that institutional investors have become more cautious again.
The shift coincided with renewed geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, alongside growing uncertainty in global bond markets. Those broader macroeconomic concerns have pushed many investors toward a more defensive stance across financial markets.
Can Ethereum Still Rally?
Despite the recent headwinds, Ethereum’s short-term outlook hasn’t completely broken down.
If buyers can successfully reclaim—and more importantly, hold—the $1,800 level, analysts believe momentum could accelerate toward the next major technical target around $2,200.
That would place a roughly 25% rally back on the table.
However, the bullish scenario still depends on several moving pieces falling into place. Continued whale selling, persistent ETF outflows, or another wave of geopolitical uncertainty could easily interrupt the recovery before it gains real traction.
For now, Ethereum sits at an important crossroads. The charts are beginning to improve, but on-chain data and macro conditions suggest bulls still have work to do before declaring victory.
