- XRP whales now hold 45.8 billion tokens, the highest level recorded since 2018.
- Spot XRP ETF demand has slowed sharply in 2026, weakening bullish momentum.
- Options traders see only a 2% chance of XRP breaking above $2 in the near term.
XRP whales have been loading up aggressively lately, yet the token’s price action hasn’t really followed through in the way many traders expected. On-chain data shows that wallets holding at least 10 million XRP now control a combined 45.8 billion tokens, valued at more than $68.5 billion. According to Santiment, this marks the largest whale-held supply since May 2018, which is honestly a pretty huge milestone considering how long XRP has been around.
At the moment, those whale wallets account for roughly 68.5% of XRP’s total circulating supply. That’s the highest concentration seen in nearly eight years, and under normal market conditions, that kind of accumulation would probably spark a stronger rally. But despite the heavy buying pressure from large holders, XRP continues to move sideways, almost like the market just refuses to react. It’s strange… and traders are noticing it.
ETF Demand Has Slowed Down
A closer look at the data suggests that whale activity has been moving alongside Spot XRP ETF flows. U.S.-based Spot XRP ETFs currently hold around $1.25 billion in assets, which sounds big at first, though it’s still tiny compared to the $68 billion-plus controlled by whales. Even so, ETF inflows have shown a fairly strong connection to short-term XRP price movements over the past several months.
Whale accumulation really accelerated during late 2025, shortly after Spot XRP ETFs launched in the middle of the crypto winter around November. Back then, institutional interest looked much stronger and inflows were climbing consistently. But once the holiday season rolled around, momentum started fading. Since the start of 2026, ETF demand has mostly flattened out, and interestingly enough, whale accumulation also stopped expanding at the same pace.
For the past few months, whale-controlled supply has hovered around the same 68% level without much growth. That stagnant demand has been reflected directly in XRP’s chart. Since Q2 began, the token has struggled to reclaim levels above $1.50, while trading mostly between $1.30 and $1.60. Unless ETF demand starts picking up again — or retail traders finally return in size — this sideways trend may continue a bit longer.
Options Traders Aren’t Expecting a Big Rally
The derivatives market isn’t exactly screaming confidence either. Data from Deribit showed options traders pricing in only a 2% probability that XRP could break above $2 before the end of May. That’s an incredibly low expectation for a bullish breakout, especially considering whales are holding record amounts of supply.
It’s possible the market is simply dealing with the usual summer slowdown, where trading activity and speculation cool off across the board. Still, XRP isn’t alone here. The broader altcoin market has struggled to gain traction lately as Bitcoin continues soaking up most investor attention and liquidity.
Right now, XRP finds itself in a weird spot. Whale conviction appears extremely strong, institutional participation exists but has stalled, and retail enthusiasm feels muted. The ingredients for a breakout are there, maybe, but the spark just hasn’t arrived yet.
