- Solana has gained short-term momentum, but remains inside a broader bearish structure and range.
- Network growth and new address activity remain weak, signaling limited retail participation.
- MVRV data suggests downside risk still exists, with key support and resistance levels defining the next move.
Solana has been trying to build something resembling momentum lately. Since May 4, the price has climbed about 7.2%, and it’s been holding above $80 for a bit now. On the surface, that looks encouraging… a few green days in a row, some optimism creeping back in. But zoom out a little, and the picture feels less convincing.
A Bounce Inside a Bigger Downtrend
Even with four straight green candles, SOL is still stuck inside a broader bearish structure. The range it’s been trading in since February hasn’t really broken, and that downtrend from earlier in the year is still hanging overhead. So while the short-term move looks decent, the bigger question—can it actually push toward $100?—still feels… uncertain, at best.
There’s a kind of hesitation in the market. Buyers are stepping in, sure, but not with enough force to flip the overall structure. It’s more like a controlled bounce than a true breakout attempt.
Network Growth Isn’t Backing the Rally
Then there’s the on-chain side, which tells a quieter story. New address growth on Solana has been trending downward since March. There was a small uptick recently, but honestly, it’s barely noticeable compared to what we’ve seen in past bull runs.
That matters, because new addresses usually signal fresh participants entering the network. Right now, that wave just isn’t there. And to be fair, expecting explosive growth in what many still consider a bear phase might be a bit unrealistic. Still, the lack of strong retail demand makes it harder to argue that a major breakout is right around the corner.
MVRV Signals Point to Caution
Looking at the MVRV deviation bands adds another layer. Historically, when SOL dropped below the -1.0σ level, it marked deep bearish conditions—basically, extreme pessimism. We saw that back in 2022, and things only got worse after the FTX collapse.
In this cycle, that same lower band actually held as support earlier in February, which is interesting. But since then, price has just been ranging, not really committing to a direction. And if things turn south again, a move below $64—near that lower deviation band—isn’t out of the question.
On the upside, there are levels to watch too. The $120 area, tied to the -0.5σ band, stands out as a key resistance if momentum ever picks up properly.
For now though, Solana feels caught in between. Not weak enough to collapse, not strong enough to break out. Just… waiting, like the rest of the market.
