- XRP recorded its largest realized loss spike since 2022, historically a signal that weak hands may be exiting near potential bottoms.
- Strong support has formed between $1.22 and $1.28, with repeated buying reactions and long lower wicks.
- A breakout above $1.42–$1.50 is needed to confirm a reversal, while a loss of $1.22 could reopen downside risk.
XRP has just printed its biggest on-chain realized loss spike in nearly three years. According to Santiment’s February 21 update, investors locked in massive losses as they sold below their original purchase prices, a classic sign of fear-driven exits. Realized losses like this don’t happen quietly. They usually show up when panic starts outweighing patience.
The last time XRP saw a comparable spike, around -$1.93 billion, was roughly 39 months ago. What followed then was unexpected by many, a 114% rally over the next eight months. That doesn’t guarantee a repeat, of course. But historically, these sharp waves of capitulation often signal that weaker hands are clearing out, reducing immediate sell pressure.
Extreme fear tends to cluster near market bottoms. Not always, but often enough to matter. When sellers exhaust themselves, supply dries up. That’s usually when price begins stabilizing, sometimes quietly at first.
Higher Timeframe Support Draws Attention
Analyst BitGuru noted that XRP is now hovering near a significant higher-timeframe support zone after an extended downtrend. On the Binance XRP/USDT chart, the structure tells a layered story. August and September were largely sideways, then October delivered a heavy breakdown, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the board.
November and December didn’t look like accumulation. More like distribution. Price drifted, struggled, failed to reclaim strength. But by January and early February, downside momentum began to slow as XRP tested the $1.22 to $1.28 support range.
That zone has shown clear buying interest. Long lower wicks formed repeatedly, suggesting sellers pushed price down only to be met with demand. Since then, XRP has managed to hold above this region. It’s not a confirmed reversal yet, but the structure hints at a base forming. Slowly.
A Bounce, But Confirmation Still Needed
Recent price action shows a tentative bounce from the $1.22 level. The chart is beginning to curve slightly, forming what looks like a rounded bottom pattern on shorter timeframes. That’s constructive. Still fragile, but constructive.
For a real shift in momentum, XRP needs to break above the recent lower high and reclaim the $1.42 to $1.50 resistance range. That area has capped rallies before. A decisive move above it could open the door toward $1.90 to $2.20, where previous supply sits waiting.
Until that breakout happens, the broader trend remains cautious, even bearish. If $1.22 fails to hold, downside risk re-emerges quickly. Traders are watching both the charts and on-chain realized profit and loss metrics closely now. Capitulation may have occurred, but confirmation of recovery still requires price to prove it.
