- AVAX is hovering around $13.26, revisiting the same horizontal support zone between $13 and $13.50 that acted as a final line of defense during the 2022 crash, inside a long-term descending channel that’s been intact since the 2021 peak.
- Price action shows shrinking candles and weakening momentum near the lower boundary of the channel, a compression pattern that historically precedes either sharp rebounds toward the midline or strong breakdowns.
- From here, Avalanche faces two clear paths: hold the $13 support and build a base for a bounce back into the channel, or lose the level and risk a deeper move toward the $11 region if sellers finally overwhelm long-term buyers.
Avalanche finds itself right back at the exact zone where everything flipped during 2022 — and honestly, the whole moment feels a bit like déjà vu.
Crypto analyst Altcoin Pioneer shared a chart on X that captures this perfectly. AVAX is hovering around $13.26, almost glued to the same area that acted as Avalanche’s final support during one of its most brutal capitulations. Charts returning to old battlegrounds usually mean something, even if the meaning isn’t obvious yet.
On higher timeframes, Avalanche looks strangely calm. Too calm, maybe. The descending structure stretching from the 2021 peak all the way to today still holds intact, with each lower high respecting the same diagonal trendline. For over three years, AVAX has moved inside this steady falling channel — a structure that has quietly shaped every major turn since the bull-top.
Now the spotlight sits on a horizontal zone between $13 and $13.50. Avalanche tapped this block multiple times in past cycles and bounced hard every time. And here it is again, returning to the exact same support area like the story looped back to the opening chapter. Altcoin Pioneer highlighted how this zone held during the nastiest part of the 2022 crash, giving Avalanche just enough room to reset before it finally climbed into early 2023.
AVAX Reacts to Compression Inside Its Long-Term Channel
AVAX has been drifting toward the lower boundary of the channel, but the candles are getting weaker, smaller — almost like the market is running out of breath. Shrinking momentum like this often shows up right before volatility snaps back.
Altcoin Pioneer noted something interesting: price is sitting exactly where the descending trendline and horizontal support are starting to pull apart. When structures widen like this, markets usually don’t stay quiet very long. Compression like this tends to force a decision sooner than later.
AVAX is also sitting near the lower edge of its 3-week range, with momentum indicators starting to weaken. Historically, exhaustion clusters around retracements this deep. In the past, buyers stepped in aggressively whenever Avalanche fell into oversold territory near this same support.
The chart shows the same pattern repeating again and again:
• tag support
• stall for a bit
• then attempt a recovery toward the midline
It doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but patterns repeating this consistently deserve attention.
Two Clear Paths: Bounce or Breakdown
From here, the market structure leaves two pretty straightforward scenarios:
1. AVAX holds the $13 support again and rebounds.
This would mirror its previous behavior almost perfectly. Avalanche loves to reverse in uncomfortable places — the kind of zones where sentiment feels coldest. A bounce toward the mid-channel level wouldn’t be surprising at all.
2. AVAX loses support and breaks down.
A clean close under this block would be new territory; Avalanche hasn’t broken this level since 2022. If it does, the chart opens room toward $11 or slightly below. There’s no confirmation of that path yet, but traders won’t ignore the risk.
For now, everything depends on one simple question:
Can this support hold one more time?
AVAX has done it before. The market is watching to see if it can do it again.
