- $5B Ethereum options expiry favors bulls after a 22% monthly rally.
- Bearish bets mostly sit below $4,600, leaving calls in control.
- Expiry could help propel ETH toward the $5,000 milestone.
Ethereum is heading into one of its most important events of the month—the $5 billion options expiry set for Friday. After a 22% surge in the last 30 days, bullish strategies now hold the upper hand, while short sellers are left scrambling. If momentum continues, this expiry could be the spark that pushes ETH past the $5,000 mark, though investor attention is also fixed on Nvidia’s earnings this week, which could influence market sentiment.
Ethereum Market Cap and S&P 500 Correlation Explained
At a market cap of $557 billion, Ethereum now sits among the 30 largest tradable assets worldwide—bigger than companies like Mastercard and Exxon Mobil. While comparing ETH to stocks remains controversial, its correlation with the S&P 500 has been consistently high, often above 80%. That tight relationship means traders are watching not just crypto data, but also corporate earnings, especially in AI, which has been a major driver for equity markets.
Ethereum Bears Struggle as ETH Options Market Turns Bullish
Most bearish bets had been placed around $4,000 or lower, and the August rally left them exposed. Even with ETH facing resistance near $4,800, bullish traders remain in control. Deribit, which handles about 65% of ETH’s options market, shows only 6% of put contracts sitting above $4,600. By contrast, 71% of call positions are below $4,600, with heavy clusters around $4,400 and $4,500—levels bulls are defending strongly.
Ethereum Options Data Shows Bulls Poised for $5,000 Price Target
Looking at potential expiry scenarios, the advantage for call holders is clear:
- $4,050–$4,350: Calls lead by $560M
- $4,350–$4,550: Calls lead by $915M
- $4,550–$4,850: Calls lead by $1.35B
- $4,850–$5,200: Calls lead by $1.8B
Even if ETH slips back to $4,400, bullish traders would still leave the expiry satisfied. And if Ethereum continues pressing against the $4,800 resistance zone, the expiry could provide enough momentum to finally test $5,000.
Ethereum Price Prediction: What Happens After Options Expiry?
The expiry alone won’t guarantee a breakout, but it sets the stage. Much depends on trader sentiment in the days ahead, especially as Nvidia’s earnings could sway risk appetite across markets. Ethereum’s tight correlation with equities makes those results especially relevant.
If momentum holds, ETH could soon be knocking on the $5,000 door. But global growth concerns and macro pressures could slow the climb. Either way, bulls walk into expiry week with a decisive advantage.
