- Dogecoin Drops 16%, Approaching Key Support: DOGE is now hovering at $0.20, with a 95% drop in network activity signaling further downside risks.
- Bearish Indicators Strengthen: Multiple EMA crossovers and a potential death cross suggest selling pressure remains dominant, despite RSI entering oversold territory.
- Critical Levels to Watch: If $0.20 holds, DOGE could rebound to $0.23, but a break below may lead to $0.1716, intensifying fears of a deeper correction.
The crypto market is in turmoil again, with the fear and greed index plummeting to 26. Meme coins have taken a hit, dragging the market cap down to $58.15 billion. Dogecoin ($DOGE) has been no exception, tumbling nearly 16% in the last week.
Now sitting at its $0.20 psychological support, DOGE hints at possible consolidation. But with fear running high, is a deeper crash inevitable?
Network Activity Collapse—A Warning Sign?
Volatility is shaking things up, but Dogecoin’s network activity is in freefall. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged a staggering 95% drop in active addresses.
Back in November 2024, Dogecoin had 2.66 million active addresses. That number has shrunk to just 130,282.
Meanwhile, Martinez warns that Bitcoin could also be in trouble. If DOGE breaks below $0.19, the analyst suggests a further steep decline toward $0.060—a potentially brutal correction.
Bearish Pressure Builds—Can DOGE Hold $0.20?
The daily price chart tells a concerning story. DOGE recently failed to break above $0.2428, leading to a drop to $0.2104. A lower price rejection and Doji candle suggest a possible morning star pattern, but confirmation is needed.
During this selloff, several key moving averages crossed bearishly:
- The 50-day and 100-day EMAs formed a bearish crossover.
- The 20-day and 200-day EMAs remain negatively aligned.
- A death cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs looms, signaling deeper downside risks.
Meanwhile, the daily RSI has plunged into oversold territory, hinting at a potential bounce toward resistance. But the indicators remain divided, making DOGE’s next move hard to call.
Derivatives Data Shows Mixed Signals
Dogecoin’s open interest (OI) is fluctuating wildly, showing signs of uncertainty. After briefly turning negative, the open interest weighted funding rate rebounded to 0.0029%.
At the same time, Dogecoin’s open interest climbed by nearly 3%, now sitting at $1.89 billion. The long-to-short ratio remains at 1, reflecting an even battle between bulls and bears.
Interestingly, traders on Binance and OKX are heavily bullish. Their long-to-short ratio leans nearly 2x to 3x in favor of bulls, contradicting the broader bearish sentiment.
However, liquidations are piling up. In the last 24 hours, $15.15 million has been wiped out, with $9.13 million in long liquidations and $6.02 million in shorts.
Key Price Levels to Watch
DOGE is holding steady near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.20. If bulls take charge, the price could push toward the $0.23 resistance trendline.
But if $0.20 fails to hold, expect a drop toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1716—a level that could determine whether this is just a correction or the start of a bigger collapse.
The next few trading sessions will be critical. Can DOGE fight back, or is it staring down a deeper market-wide selloff?
