- A quantile regression model suggests Bitcoin will trade between $135,000 and $285,000 for the majority of 2025.
- The model classifies Bitcoin’s price into three zones – “cold” ($55,000-$85,000), “warm” ($85,000-$136,000), and “hot” ($136,000-$285,000).
- Bitcoin’s price needs to find support around $68,500, a level with high concentration of investor activity from previous all-time highs.
A unique Bitcoin price model developed by quantile regression analysis predicts that BTC could reach up to $285,000 by 2025. The model outlines three price ranges that correspond to different market cycles.
Quantile Model Highlights Three Price Zones
The quantile regression model classifies Bitcoin‘s probability space into three zones termed “cold,” “warm,” and “hot.”
Cold Zone: $55K – $85K
The cold zone below 33 percentile for 2025 ranges between $55,000 and $85,000. This is the lowest expected valuation range. Seasoned investors are expected to build positions in this range while keeping long-term targets above $100,000.
Warm Zone: $85K – $136K
The warm zone between 33 to 66 percentile ranges from $85,000 to $136,000. Retail interest will increase in this range as BTC forms new all-time highs and enters price discovery. Investors may gradually build positions but with the risk of overexposure.
Hot Zone: $136K – $285K
The hot zone between 66 to 99 percentile indicates the peak range between $136,000 and $285,000 by end of 2025. BTC is expected to consolidate for a third of 2025 in this range. The volatility will be highest here with chances of fast market reversals.
Bitcoin Needs Support at $68,500
According to on-chain data, the $68,500 level is historically important for Bitcoin. This region marked BTC’s all-time highs in previous bull markets.
Currently, Bitcoin is facing a correction after dropping from $69,555 to around $67,000. Sustained trading above $68,500 will indicate bullish momentum. Sideways consolidation near current levels may lead to a deeper correction this week.
Conclusion
The quantile model provides an insightful forecast for Bitcoin’s potential price action in 2025. The year could see BTC reach a peak valuation of up to $285,000 if bullish momentum continues. However, the model also outlines lower valuations between $55,000 to $136,000 depending on prevailing market conditions.
