- Prediction market volume surged 565% in Q3, fueled by increased US presidential election betting activity.
- Polymarket holds a 99% market share, with $1.7 billion staked on the 2024 election.
- Betting trends show former President Trump leading Vice President Harris on Polymarket by eight points.
The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant surge in prediction market activity, with betting volume reaching $3.1 billion. This marks a sharp increase from the $463.3 million recorded in the second quarter, largely driven by growing bets on the upcoming US presidential election. A report released on October 14 by CoinGecko attributes this spike to heightened interest as the election approaches.
Polymarket Dominates the Market
Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, held a dominant position in this space, accounting for more than 99% of the total market share. The report from CoinGecko notes that 46% of Polymarket’s volume so far this year stems from bets placed on the 2024 US presidential election, amounting to $1.7 billion. During the third quarter, Polymarket’s betting volume rose by 713%, while transaction activity saw an even larger jump of 848%.
The platform’s total value locked (TVL) stands at over $172 million, based on data from DefiLlama. This reflects the growing interest in decentralized platforms for wagering on real-world events, particularly as users bet on the outcome of high-profile elections.
Betting Trends Shift Toward Trump
Data from Polymarket shows that former President Donald Trump has gained an eight-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. By mid-October, 53.8% of Polymarket participants had placed their bets on Trump securing the presidency, compared to 45.3% backing Harris.
The shift in odds occurred on October 4, representing a reversal from earlier trends. By October 12, Trump’s lead had grown to over 10 points, signaling a significant change in the betting landscape as the election draws closer.
