- Ripple’s new MiCA license opens the door to crypto payment services across all 27 EU countries, giving XRP a potential long-term tailwind.
- Weak on-chain activity and recent ETF outflows continue to weigh on short-term momentum, even as bearish futures positioning raises the possibility of a short squeeze.
- XRP remains trapped in a familiar trading range, with a breakout above $1.15-$1.18 or a drop below $1.08 likely determining this week’s direction.
Last week, we expected XRP to remain stuck between $1.10 and $1.18 unless a major catalyst changed the picture. That’s almost exactly how things played out.
Buyers defended the lower end of the range several times, but every attempt to push above resistance was quickly met by sellers taking profits. The result? Another week of sideways trading, with neither bulls nor bears gaining full control.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading just above $1.10, down slightly over the past 24 hours. Compared to Bitcoin and several other large-cap cryptocurrencies, XRP continues to lag. On-chain activity has slowed noticeably, institutional demand has cooled, and many traders appear content to sit on the sidelines while waiting for a stronger catalyst.
Still, the outlook isn’t entirely quiet.
Ripple’s latest regulatory victory in Europe could become an important long-term driver, while improving macroeconomic conditions may provide the market with a little more breathing room than it had in recent weeks.
Ripple’s European Expansion Could Become a Major Tailwind
One of the biggest developments came on July 11, when Ripple secured a full MiCA license in Luxembourg.
That approval allows the company to offer regulated payment and custody services throughout all 27 European Union member states, a significant milestone for Ripple’s international expansion.
For XRP, regulatory clarity matters.
Banks, financial institutions, and payment providers generally prefer operating within well-defined legal frameworks before adopting new technologies. The MiCA approval removes much of that uncertainty across Europe and could strengthen Ripple’s position in the region over time.
However, positive regulatory news hasn’t immediately translated into stronger network activity.
Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger fell to roughly 25,350 on July 11, marking the second-lowest reading of 2026. New wallet creation has also slowed to its weakest pace since late 2024, suggesting fewer new users are entering the ecosystem.
Institutional demand softened as well.
U.S.-based XRP investment products recorded approximately $7.29 million in net outflows on July 8, ending a nine-week streak of positive inflows. While the selling wasn’t particularly aggressive, it does indicate that institutional enthusiasm has cooled for the moment.
Overall, the market doesn’t appear fearful—it simply appears patient.
Bearish Sentiment Could Set the Stage for a Short Squeeze
Interestingly, derivatives markets are telling a slightly different story.
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel pointed out that Binance funding rates have turned deeply negative following XRP’s roughly 72% correction, with traders continuing to increase bearish positions.
Historically, similar funding conditions have sometimes preceded sharp reversals.
The last time funding became this negative, XRP eventually rallied by roughly 126%. That doesn’t guarantee another explosive move is coming, of course. Markets rarely repeat themselves perfectly.
Still, heavily one-sided positioning can create opportunities.
If buying volume suddenly returns, a wave of short liquidations could force bearish traders to close positions, adding fuel to an upside move through what’s commonly known as a short squeeze.
XRP’s Technical Picture Remains Neutral
Looking strictly at the chart, XRP continues to trade inside a well-defined range.
The price remains above the important $1.08-$1.10 support zone, but buyers continue struggling to overcome resistance between $1.15 and $1.18. Since the beginning of July, each rally has stalled slightly earlier than the previous one—a subtle sign that bullish momentum has weakened.
Momentum indicators reflect that same uncertainty.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 43, below the neutral midpoint but still well above oversold territory. The Ultimate Oscillator paints a similar picture, hovering around 46.5 without signaling either strong buying or heavy selling pressure.
One indicator is beginning to improve, though.
The MACD has started flattening after spending multiple sessions below zero. Its histogram is now approaching neutral territory, suggesting selling momentum is gradually fading.
If buyers can trigger a bullish crossover during the coming sessions, XRP could once again challenge the resistance zone above.
What Could Move XRP Next?
Regulation remains one of the biggest variables.
Many investors continue watching the CLARITY Act, legislation designed to establish clearer rules for digital assets in the United States. If passed, and if XRP ultimately falls under clearer CFTC oversight, institutional participation could increase significantly over the longer term.
ETF flows will also remain important.
Last week’s outflows interrupted months of consistent buying. A return to positive inflows would suggest institutional investors are once again increasing exposure, providing liquidity that XRP has lacked recently.
Meanwhile, Ripple’s expanding payment business across Europe following its MiCA approval could offer another supportive catalyst if adoption accelerates.
Broader macroeconomic developments also remain in focus. Geopolitical tensions continue to influence investor sentiment, although markets appear somewhat calmer than they were only a few weeks ago.
If Bitcoin maintains its recent stability and capital continues flowing back into cryptocurrencies, XRP would likely benefit alongside the broader market.
XRP Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch This Week
Bullish Scenario
If XRP continues defending the $1.08-$1.10 support zone while ETF inflows improve and optimism surrounding Ripple’s European expansion grows, buyers could make another run toward $1.15.
A convincing breakout above $1.18 would likely shift momentum in favor of the bulls and bring $1.20 into focus as the next major upside target.
Most Likely Scenario
The most probable outcome remains another week of range-bound trading.
Current technical indicators remain neutral, on-chain activity is relatively quiet, and neither buyers nor sellers appear willing to make aggressive moves without a fresh catalyst.
That leaves XRP trading between $1.08 and $1.15, waiting for stronger regulatory developments, renewed institutional demand, or a broader crypto market breakout to determine its next trend.
Bearish Scenario
If sellers force XRP below $1.08, downside momentum could accelerate toward $1.05.
Losing that support would expose the psychologically important $1.00 level, particularly if ETF outflows continue, network activity remains weak, or Bitcoin experiences another round of market-wide selling.
For now, XRP sits at an important crossroads. Long-term fundamentals continue improving through regulatory progress, but short-term momentum remains subdued. Whether buyers can capitalize on Ripple’s expanding European presence—or bears maintain control—will likely determine how the week unfolds.
