- Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have fallen to 51% on Polymarket after Kamala Harris revealed Tim Walz as her running mate, marking the lowest odds for Trump since May.
- Prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt show Harris gaining ground against Trump, with a 90% chance now that the two candidates will debate before the election.
- The battleground states remain hotly contested and will be crucial in determining the final outcome, while election betting on platforms like Polymarket has surged, drawing concerns from some lawmakers about the integrity of the process.
Former President Donald Trump‘s chances of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election have declined on Polymarket, marking their lowest level since May. The battleground states remain highly contested and will be crucial in determining the final outcome.
Trump’s Falling Odds
The former President’s probability of winning now stands at 51%, down from earlier levels. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris‘ odds have continued rising in the last two weeks and now stand at 47%, suggesting a closer race as the election nears. Trump’s chances have fallen after Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Walz’s Selection Boosts Harris
Harris’ selection of Walz, a former teacher and military veteran, is seen as a strong choice. His moderate political stance has garnered major endorsements, adding momentum to Harris’ campaign. Conversely, the Trump campaign has struggled to find an effective attack against Walz. His Midwestern roots have left the GOP scrambling to adjust its strategy.
Battleground States Key
Despite Trump’s falling odds, he leads in several states, particularly the Midwest and South, while Harris holds a strong lead on the coasts. The battleground states remain highly contested and will determine the outcome.
Election Betting Frenzy on Polymarket
Polymarket has seen remarkable growth amid the election betting frenzy, with trading volume surpassing $1 billion in July. The total bets on Trump vs. Harris have ballooned to $539 million. However, some lawmakers have raised concerns, urging regulators to ban gambling on elections over integrity concerns.
Conclusion
The anticipated debate between Trump and Harris is expected to further shift market sentiments as both make their case to voters. Harris’ strong VP pick has boosted her odds, but Trump remains competitive, especially in key battleground states that will ultimately decide the winner.
