- Trump may reveal the next Fed Chair before Christmas, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
- Final candidate interviews will conclude after Thanksgiving, putting a decision within reach.
- Kevin Hassett remains the leading favorite if an announcement happens this year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has provided the clearest timeline yet for when President Donald Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve Chair. Despite prediction markets leaning heavily toward a delay, Bessent says the president could reveal his pick before Christmas. The update arrives just as Trump hinted that he “already knows” who he wants to replace Jerome Powell, whose term officially ends in May 2026.
A Clearer Timeline Emerges
During an interview on FOX News, Bessent explained that the selection process has moved into its final phase. A new round of interviews is underway, followed by another review conducted by senior White House officials. According to Bessent, Trump will personally meet with the final three candidates shortly after Thanksgiving, and this could put a public announcement within reach before Christmas if everything remains on track. Trump once again confirmed that Bessent declined the position, preferring to remain at the Treasury.
The Shortlist and the Market’s Favorite
The five finalists include Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, former NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder. Among them, Hassett stands out as the top contender in the eyes of both political insiders and prediction-market traders. He has already made it clear that he would accept the job if selected, and his policy stance favoring larger rate cuts aligns closely with Trump’s economic priorities. Despite this, Polymarket traders still believe there is a strong chance the announcement slips into 2026, even though Bessent’s comments have begun shifting expectations.
Markets Skeptical, But The Window Is Open
Crypto traders currently price in a higher probability that the president won’t make his decision public this year, assigning a 44% chance that the Fed Chair announcement comes after December. And yet, if Trump does act before the year ends, Hassett holds a clear lead over the others in market odds. While speculation continues to build, the final call now appears to depend on how quickly the last interview round wraps up—and whether Trump chooses to move sooner rather than later.
