- Governments Going Indirect: Countries like France, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are gaining Bitcoin exposure by investing in companies like MicroStrategy or ETFs instead of holding BTC directly.
- Institutional Shift: Standard Chartered sees institutions warming up to Bitcoin, slowly increasing underweight positions as volatility drops and access improves.
- Long-Term Target: The $500,000 prediction isn’t a short-term moonshot — it’s based on growing demand trends, including sovereign and institutional participation.
Standard Chartered isn’t backing down from its bold call — a $500,000 Bitcoin by the end of the decade. Yeah, it sounds like a moonshot, but the bank says there’s more behind the prediction than hype. They’re pointing to rising ETF flows, equity exposure, and even sovereign involvement… just not the way you’d expect.
Governments Are Buying Bitcoin — Quietly
According to a recent note from the bank’s digital assets team, state-run institutions aren’t exactly hoarding Bitcoin in cold wallets. Instead, they’re scooping up shares in companies that already hold tons of BTC.
Take MicroStrategy, for example — it’s basically a Bitcoin vault disguised as a software company, holding over 214,000 BTC. France and Saudi Arabia reportedly bought in during Q1. Public funds from Norway, Switzerland, and South Korea? Also in. Even New York and California pension funds gained exposure to around 1,000 BTC by buying MicroStrategy stock.
Why Go Indirect?
For most governments, holding Bitcoin directly is still a regulatory and political nightmare. But investing in companies like MicroStrategy or ETFs? Way easier. It skips the custody mess, lowers volatility risk, and avoids the media circus of saying “Hey, we own Bitcoin now.”
It’s quiet, low-key exposure — but it counts.
That said, it’s not one-way traffic. Wisconsin’s state pension fund recently ditched its stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, walking away from exposure to around 3,400 BTC. On the flip side, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala doubled down, pushing its exposure to roughly 5,000 BTC through the same ETF.
A Slow Shift Is Happening
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, says a transformation is underway. Institutions that once ignored Bitcoin entirely are starting to nibble. As volatility eases and access improves, underweight portfolios could slowly bulk up.
This isn’t Kendrick’s first bold call. Back in April, he raised his 2025 year-end BTC target to $200K after a flood of spot ETF inflows. To him, that showed Bitcoin’s maturing — shifting from a gamble to something more “institution-grade.”
$500K Still Sounds Big — But Maybe Not Crazy
Standard Chartered’s $500,000 target isn’t about a quick moonshot — it’s a long-term roadmap. And if the trend of governments and funds inching closer to BTC keeps up, maybe that number’s not so wild after all.
Believe it or not, this prediction is starting to shape the way people talk about Bitcoin’s future. Ambitious? Definitely. Impossible? Maybe not.
