- JPMorgan says Trump’s tariffs boost U.S. recession risk to 60% this year.
- China’s retaliatory tariffs raise the stakes even further for the global economy.
- Economists warn a slowdown may already be underway—and the worst could still be ahead.
President Donald Trump latest round of tariffs? Yeah, they’ve got economists at JPMorgan ringing alarm bells. Bruce Kasman, the firm’s head of global economic research, dropped a late-Thursday note warning that these new trade measures “significantly raise” the odds of a U.S. — and maybe even a global — recession this year.
From 40% to 60%—Recession Odds Jump
Kasman now pegs the chance of a U.S. recession at 60%, up from 40% just days before the tariff rollout. And while he says there’s a slim shot the rest of the world could “muddle through” if the U.S. stumbles, he doesn’t sound optimistic. “Less likely than a global downturn,” he noted bluntly.
Timing & Confusion Aren’t Helping
The new tariffs are set to kick in over the next week. The White House has been sending mixed signals about whether these levies are set in stone—or open to negotiation. That back-and-forth makes it hard to pin down how severe the economic damage could actually be.
China Responds Swiftly
And just hours after Kasman’s note went out? China clapped back with a 34% tariff of its own on U.S. imports. That retaliation only adds to the uncertainty, throwing more fuel on the trade war fire.
Slowing Signs Already There
The U.S. economy, meanwhile, was already starting to slow down in late 2024 and into 2025—even before all this. Jobless rates were still holding around 4.1% in February, which isn’t bad historically, but momentum was clearly slipping.
“Unpredictable” Terrain Ahead
While Kasman hasn’t officially revised his broader economic forecasts yet, he did issue a caution: recessions are hard to predict—by nature. And while current data might suggest any downturn would be “mild,” there’s a lot that still needs to play out.
