- Peter Schiff predicts Bitcoin will crash before the ETF launches, as investors sell the news after buying the rumor.
- AllianceBernstein analysts forecast a more gradual buildup, with inflows accelerating after the 2024 halving leads to a 2025 cycle peak near $150,000.
- Opinions remain mixed on the ETF impact, but volatility including 30%+ crashes should be expected on the path to $150k for long-term Bitcoin believers.
Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few years. With the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, analysts have diverging views on where the price could go next.
Peter Schiff Predicts a Pre-ETF Crash
Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, has long been skeptical of Bitcoin’s value. As the price nears 18-month highs around $37,000, he believes a serious drawdown is coming before the ETF launches.
Schiff argues that Bitcoin will crash before the ETF gets approved, so investors who bought the rumor won’t profit when they go to sell the news. He sees two potential crash scenarios – either before or after the ETF launch.
Institutions Expect a More Gradual Build Up
In contrast, AllianceBernstein analysts predict more gradual ETF inflows after the 2024 halving leads to a 2025 cycle peak near $150,000. They believe early flows could be slower as institutions monitor adoption.
The recent breakout above $37,000 is just the ETF approval news slowly getting priced in. The market may be initially disappointed by the pace of outflows.
The Bitcoin Debate Continues
Opinions remain mixed on how impactful a spot Bitcoin ETF approval will be. While some see it as a watershed moment, others believe it’s already priced in. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.
Bitcoin’s upside remains strong but the road to $150,000 won’t be without volatility. Crashes of 30% or more along the way should be expected. But for long-term believers, the future is bright.