- Prediction platforms like Polymarket assign roughly a 95% chance that the US government shutdown will end between November 12 and 15, with Kalshi showing similar expectations.
- The US Senate has passed a bill to fund government operations through January 30 by a 60–40 vote, creating a clear path to reopening.
- The bill excludes an extension of ACA (“Obamacare”) subsidies, leaving major health-care disagreements unresolved even if the shutdown ends.
Expectations are building that the longest-ever U.S. federal government shutdown could finally wrap up this week. On November 11 (local time), prediction market Polymarket showed about a 95% probability that the shutdown would end between November 12 and 15.
A similar pattern is showing up on Kalshi, another decentralized prediction market, where traders are also heavily leaning toward a resolution in roughly the same time window. When both platforms converge like that, it usually means people putting real money on the line think a deal is basically in sight — even if the politics still look messy on the surface.
Senate Passes Short-Term Funding, But Health-Care Fight Remains
On the political side, the U.S. Senate has already moved its piece on the board. Lawmakers passed a budget bill to restart government operations through January 30, with 60 votes in favor and 40 against. That’s enough to clear the usual Senate hurdles and signals some level of bipartisan willingness to at least stop the bleeding.
However, the deal did not include an extension of subsidies for “Obamacare” (the Affordable Care Act, ACA). That omission is important. ACA subsidies have been a sticking point for many Democrats, and leaving them out might cause friction in the House or within parts of the Senate caucus. It also means that while the bill can get the government open again, the underlying policy fight on health care is far from settled.
For now, though, prediction markets are reading the situation as: funding first, big policy battles later. If they’re right, federal workers and agencies could see an end to the shutdown disruption within days, even if the next round of negotiations is already looming on the calendar.
