- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says many CEOs believe the U.S. is already in a recession.
- Fink warned that Trump’s tariffs could drive inflation up and block expected Fed rate cuts.
- Despite market hopes, Fink sees zero chance of four rate cuts happening this year.
Larry Fink, CEO of asset management giant BlackRock, didn’t sugarcoat it during a Monday event in New York—he said a lot of business leaders already believe the U.S. economy’s in a recession.
“Most CEOs I talk to would say we’re probably already in one,” he said while speaking at the Economic Club of New York. “One CEO even described the airline industry as a canary in the coal mine—and that bird? It’s sick.”
Tariffs Could Stall Rate Cuts
Fink also pointed the finger at President Trump’s tariff-heavy trade approach, warning that it could send inflation higher and make it harder for the Fed to do what it usually does in a slowdown—cut rates.
“This whole idea that we’re gonna get four Fed cuts this year? Not gonna happen,” Fink said. “If anything, I’m more concerned we’ll see inflation hold up, and rates go higher than they are now.”
Right now, traders are betting on at least four quarter-point cuts by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But Fink’s not buying it.
$11 Trillion and Counting
BlackRock, by the way, manages over $11 trillion in assets—yep, with a “T”—spread across everything from public equities to private markets.
His comments, which were broadcast on Bloomberg TV, add more fuel to the growing uncertainty around what the Fed might do next, especially with Donald Trump’s tariffs stirring up global markets.
