- Traders on Polymarket see only a 17% chance that Donald Trump will say “crypto” or “bitcoin” during the presidential debate, and a 13% chance for Kamala Harris.
- Trump has aggressively courted crypto voters and donations this year, while Harris’ campaign has made overtures, although her administration is considered hostile to the industry.
- Prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold allow traders to bet on the outcomes of various events, with proponents arguing they offer superior forecasting compared to polls and pundits.
Cryptocurrency has come a long way from obscurity. Now, it even has a chance of getting mentioned in the upcoming U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The odds may be slim, but the possibility exists.
Prediction Markets Show Low Odds for Crypto
On Polymarket, a prediction market platform, traders see only a 17% chance that Trump will say “crypto” or “bitcoin.” For Harris, the odds are even lower at 13%.
Instead, traders expect the candidates to focus on hot-button issues like abortion and personal attacks. “Abortion” has the highest chance of being mentioned by both Trump and Harris.
Candidates Make Overtures to Crypto Community
This election cycle, Trump has aggressively appealed to crypto supporters for votes and donations. The Harris campaign has also signaled a friendlier stance, although her administration is still seen as unfriendly by the crypto industry.
Surge in Election Betting Drives Prediction Market Growth
Election betting volume has exploded this year, with Polymarket capturing most of it. Despite blocking U.S. users due to regulation, Friday saw a record $34 million in volume on Polymarket.
On Manifold, a “play money” prediction market, “bitcoin” also ranks low for potential debate mentions. Bets pay out in a non-crypto digital currency called mana.
Conclusion
While crypto adoption has grown, the technology remains a low priority in the high-stakes presidential debate. The candidates will likely stick to broader, more divisive issues that dominate the headlines and polls. Crypto is not quite mainstream enough to expect more than a passing mention, if that.
