- Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged to 64% on Polymarket and 60% on Kalshi prediction markets.
- Trump is currently favored to win in all six swing states on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with a minimum 50% probability in each state.
- Trump’s rising odds come despite recent event cancellations and health rumors, with his campaign attributing the cancellations to scheduling conflicts.
Donald Trump‘s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have jumped significantly on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, despite the former president recently cancelling several high-profile media appearances and campaign events.
Trump’s Win Probability Rises to 60%+ on Major Betting Platforms
On Polymarket, Trump now has a 63.3% chance of beating Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to Harris’s 36.8% odds. This marks a sizable increase from earlier in the week when Trump was at 61.3% versus Harris’s 38.6%.
The story is similar on Kalshi, with Trump’s odds rising to 60% versus Harris’s 40%. Just a day earlier, Trump had 57% odds on Kalshi versus 43% for Harris.
All six key swing states show Trump with at least a 50% win probability on Polymarket and Kalshi. This includes battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, where Trump recently worked a shift at McDonald’s.
Cancellations Fuel Speculation But Don’t Dent Trump’s Odds
Interestingly, Trump’s odds have climbed despite him cancelling appearances on CNBC, NBC, and a NRA rally, as well as skipping the second debate against Harris.
While Trump’s campaign cited “scheduling conflicts,” rumors are swirling about potential health issues or a strategic political play. The cancellations don’t seem to have impacted his chances on prediction markets.
Activity on Polymarket has surged ahead of the election, with over $71 million bet on Trump versus just $4.5 million on Harris. One large bettor has wagered $1.8 million on Trump, netting $2.7 million in profit so far.
Betting Market Odds Closely Tracked for Crypto Implications
The election odds carry high stakes not just politically but for crypto markets. Many digital asset investors closely follow Polymarket and Kalshi for insights into how the election could impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Some critics argue foreign money may be skewing these platforms. However, they provide a timely pulse on the race as election day nears.
