- DOGE has rebounded sharply from December lows, showing early signs of momentum recovery
- Indicators suggest selling pressure is easing, but sustained demand is still required
- Breakout-and-retest or controlled pullbacks offer better risk setups than chasing price
Dogecoin dipped below a two-week range near the end of December, briefly breaking structure before snapping into a sharp V-shaped recovery. That drop pushed DOGE under the $0.13 level, a price zone last seen back in April, which at the time also marked a turning point. History didn’t repeat perfectly, but it did rhyme.
As January rolled in, DOGE reversed quickly and climbed back toward December highs. At the time of writing, price action is pressing into familiar resistance, hinting that this move might not be finished yet. Still, the bigger trend hasn’t magically flipped bullish overnight, and that tension is what makes the setup interesting.
Selling Pressure Is Fading, But Demand Still Matters
Looking deeper, momentum indicators suggest something has changed under the hood. Both OBV and CMF show that the heavy selling seen in recent weeks is starting to cool off. That’s a positive sign, though it doesn’t automatically guarantee follow-through.
The DMI still reflects a broader downtrend, but even there, the strength of bearish momentum is easing. Similar conditions showed up earlier this year. In early April, DOGE was buried in a downtrend, yet within a month it pushed above its prior lower high near $0.205. By mid-May, price was testing the $0.250–$0.265 supply zone, even while capital inflows remained fairly muted.
That pattern matters. Memecoin rallies tend to be fast, sometimes uncomfortable, and they don’t wait for perfect confirmation. Traders who hesitate too long often miss the impulse entirely.
Keep Expectations Grounded for DOGE
Despite the recent bounce, expectations need to stay realistic. A move to new all-time highs or a straight shot toward $1 in the near term isn’t a reasonable base case. More likely, DOGE targets local highs around $0.21, followed by the $0.275–$0.290 supply zone if momentum holds.
After that, sellers could easily regain control, especially if Bitcoin loses steam. In that scenario, DOGE could still form a macro lower high, fitting into a broader bearish structure rather than a full trend reversal. Memecoins don’t need perfect conditions to rally, but they are sensitive to shifts in overall market mood.
Timing the Bullish Setup Carefully
On lower timeframes, DOGE is currently sitting inside a local supply zone that dates back to late November. That raises the risk of a short-term pullback, even though indicators on the 4-hour chart remain firmly bullish. Chasing price here isn’t ideal.
A cleaner setup would be a breakout above $0.156 followed by a successful retest, which could offer bulls a more controlled entry. Alternatively, a dip toward the $0.135–$0.140 area may present another opportunity if demand steps in. On the upside, $0.185 and $0.210 stand out as the next logical targets, while a drop below $0.124 would invalidate the bullish case altogether.
