- Bitcoin’s bull market is accelerating, running 100 days ahead of its usual four-year cycle, per CoinMarketCap.
- Institutional adoption and BTC ETFs are contributing to Bitcoin’s potential early supercycle entry.
- Storage, lending, and privacy sectors saw significant market cap losses in Q3, dropping up to 40%.
Bitcoin’s current bull market may be ahead of schedule, running about 100 days ahead of its typical four-year cycle, according to a report by CoinMarketCap (CMC). Released on October 3, the report indicates that the cryptocurrency could be entering a supercycle, driven by factors such as institutional adoption, the rise of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and shifting market dynamics.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
The four-year cycle is a significant aspect of Bitcoin’s market behavior, largely influenced by halving events, which reduce miner rewards roughly every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 518 to 546 days after these halving events. CMC suggests that the recent halving on April 20, 2024, might lead to an all-time high sooner than previously expected.
CMC estimates that Bitcoin’s current bull market is about 40.66% complete. The report also highlights an early acceleration, estimating a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025. Despite this progress, there are signs of slowing infrastructure growth, hinting at evolving market dynamics. Increasing correlations between Bitcoin, traditional assets like gold and tech stocks, and growing institutional involvement from firms such as MicroStrategy are also notable factors contributing to these changes.
Sector Struggles and Global Crypto Adoption
In its third-quarter report, CMC noted that while memecoins and Ethereum led the active sectors, other segments of the crypto industry faced challenges. Notably, storage, lending, and privacy sectors saw significant declines, with losses of 39%, 37%, and 31%, respectively. The report mentioned that decentralized finance (DeFi) and infrastructure sectors have struggled, possibly due to a market shift toward more speculative areas like artificial intelligence, media, and memes.
The report also provided insights into global crypto adoption, identifying the United States as having the largest share of cryptocurrency users globally, with 17% of the market. India followed with a 9% share, and Brazil ranked third at 8%. Bitcoin remained the most popular digital asset across all continents in the third quarter, accounting for a market share that ranged from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.
Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ranked third in popularity across most regions with a 13% share. Meanwhile, Solana held the second position with an average market share of 14%, while Toncoin, associated with Telegram’s blockchain project, was among the most popular cryptocurrencies in Africa, holding a 15% share.
