- Bernstein predicts SEC will approve bitcoin ETF in early 2024, which could drive significant new demand and push bitcoin price to $150,000 by 2025
- Approval of bitcoin ETF could shift up to 10% of bitcoin’s circulating supply into ETFs from new institutional investors
- Bitcoin’s next “halving” event in 2024 will reduce miner rewards and force out less efficient miners, benefiting more efficient ones
Bitcoin’s price could surge to $150,000 by 2025 according to a new prediction by Bernstein, representing a nearly fivefold increase from current levels. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said the firm expects the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by early 2024, a move that could drive significant new demand for the cryptocurrency.
SEC Approval of Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein predicts the SEC will likely approve a bitcoin ETF in the first quarter of 2024. This would allow mainstream investors to gain exposure to bitcoin directly from their brokerage accounts for the first time. Currently, the only similar product is Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which holds around 3% of outstanding bitcoin.
Impact on Bitcoin Price and Supply
The analysts believe SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF could shift up to 10% of bitcoin’s circulating supply into ETFs. This influx of new demand from conventional investors could propel bitcoin’s price to $150,000 by mid-2025. That’s more than double bitcoin’s all-time high above $67,000 in November 2021.
Bitcoin Halving in 2024
The prediction comes ahead of bitcoin’s next “halving” event in April 2024. This recurring event happens every four years and cuts the rewards for bitcoin miners in half. Bernstein expects the halving will force higher-cost miners out of the market, allowing more efficient miners to benefit from reduced competition.
Recent Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin recently hit $35,000, its highest level since May 2022. Investors are increasingly optimistic the SEC will approve a bitcoin ETF before year-end after declining to appeal a court ruling against it. However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has been critical of crypto, so whether regulators will embrace a bitcoin ETF remains uncertain.
While risks and uncertainty exist, Bernstein sees potential for bitcoin to stage a significant rally if the SEC approves a bitcoin ETF in 2024. This could open the floodgates to fresh institutional demand and propel bitcoin’s price to new highs over $100,000. However, the cryptocurrency would need to overcome recent challenges around regulation and market turbulence in order to realize these lofty predictions.