- The SEC approval of the first bitcoin spot ETF signals wider acceptance and could help drive the price to $100k or more by 2024.
- Investors compare the ETF to the first gold ETF, predicting a dramatic long-term bitcoin price increase like gold experienced.
- Additional price catalysts are the 2024 bitcoin halving constraining supply and increased adoption, with some predicting $250k if adoption continues growing.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved the first-ever spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), a pivotal development for the cryptocurrency industry. This approval could pave the way for bitcoin hitting $100,000 or more this year, according to enthusiastic crypto investors.
What is a Bitcoin ETF?
An ETF allows more mainstream retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin indirectly by purchasing a share that trades on a stock exchange. The approval of a bitcoin ETF signals wider acceptance of the digital asset as institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity offer these products.
ETFs Diversify Bitcoin Exposure
“I think this is a really big breakthrough for bitcoin as a digital asset. It’s a much broader story for digital property in general,” said Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital. Scaramucci has been increasing his firm’s exposure to bitcoin, ethereum, solana and other cryptocurrencies.
He predicts bitcoin will likely surpass its all-time high of around $69,000 by the end of 2024, hitting $100,000 or more. “Could bitcoin be $100,000, which is more or a little bit more than a double over the next year? I do believe that,” Scaramucci stated.
Comparison to Gold
The ETF approval is being compared to the launch of the first spot gold ETF in 2004. While it took years for gold prices to react, the precious metal eventually skyrocketed in value. Crypto investors expect a similarly dramatic, albeit faster, price increase for bitcoin following ETF adoption.
“We see it as digital gold,” said Scaramucci. “If you look at the market cap of gold, $13 trillion, there’s no reason why bitcoin could not be 50% or 60% of that market capitalization. So that implies a 10x price over the next decade.”
Other Factors Driving Adoption
While the ETF approval has been priced in for some time, the next catalyst will be when the ETFs begin actually purchasing bitcoin, potentially within weeks. In addition, the bitcoin “halving” in April 2024 is expected to constrain supply and drive-up prices.
This halving happens every four years and cuts the rewards bitcoin miners receive in half. Previous halvings have preceded bitcoin bull runs.
Billionaire investor Tim Draper predicts the confluence of mainstream adoption and the halving could push bitcoin to $250,000 by July 2024. Draper highlights increased bitcoin usage by women as a driving factor this cycle.
2023: A Turnaround Year
After a brutal 2022 bear market exacerbated by the FTX collapse, bitcoin gained over 150% in 2023. Investors are calling the start of a new bull run thanks to the ETF, the halving, and rebuilding trust after the FTX fallout.
While predictions range from $100,000 to $250,000, crypto bulls broadly agree bitcoin’s best days lie ahead in 2024 and beyond.